Russia and Iran have seen their political influence and economic fortunes spiral on a downward trajectory these last two years. From positions of global military and financial strength paralleled only by China and the USA, both these totalitarian regimes have been challenged to the point of potential internal combustion. The reasons for their declining fortunes are paradoxically similar and yet very different.

It would be impossible to give a detailed analysis for my conclusions, and this article will not attempt to do so therefore only verified generalizations are appropriate.

Let’s view Putin’s failed attempt to defeat and colonize Ukraine. When he embarked on this mission none of his military advisors would have considered that five years later that objective would not been achieved as Ukraine effectively countered though at some irreparable cost in terms of human suffering. Moreover, Ukrainian drones and covert operatives have severely damaged Russian infrastructure – ports, bridges, telecommunications, gas and electricity hubs, oil facilities, roads, weapons depots and more. Exacerbated by sanctions, the cost of war and domestic turmoil Putin’s government never would have considered nor envisaged the force of challenge let alone the damage that Russia is currently experiencing.

It was also apparent that Russia’s military power, much to the surprise of NATO and the Pentagon is below par – second rate. This needs explanation and elaboration. At the start of the war the Chinese tanks used by Russia used to supplement Russian’s dwindling old workhorses were of little use in the sodden soil of Eastern European winters – they literally got stuck in the mud.

Furthermore, we witnessed the necessary requirement to obtain missiles from Iran to assist the Russian onslaught, but these needs could not be matched given how Iranian weapons factories were targeted by Israel and domestic opposition within Iran. Iran can no longer be relied upon to supplement Russia’s military requirements.

Inadequate lack of weaponry needed to defeat Ukraine was however not the main factor hindering Putin’s objectives. The Russian army was a total mess. We verified so many desertions and young men leaving the country before their mandatory call up that the manpower needed was totally inadequate to fight the war. Trainee conscripts were unprepared and incompetent.  North Korea was begged to send in their troops, and they obliged.

These military fiascos simultaneously coincided with Russian influence in Syria being destroyed with the fall of Assad, after decades of military, political and financial investment. In a matter of months Israel and anti-Assad forces united to end fifty years of Russian control and billions of dollars worth of assets provided to the Syrian dictator.

Now many analysts criticized the EU and the UK for supporting both Ukraine politically and militarily whilst financially supporting Putin, by purchasing Russian oil and gas. I conclude this was by design to keep the war going to further weaken Russia. NATO calculated correctly that an unsustainable prolonged war would exacerbate Russian weakness as further and more drastic economic sanctions were promoted. And this was the objective of NATO, Ukraine, being the pawns in the game be damned. It is no coincidence that the Trump Administration have changed from their former hostility to Zelensky to a supporting policy.

A weakened Russia was and still is in the interests of both the West and China – they want to see the Russian Bear mortally wounded militarily, economically, and politically. Their objectives currently appear achievable.

So let’s turn our attention towards Iran. Prior to October 7th 2023, Iran were a major global force achieving chaos via proxies in the Middle East. Using vast sums from their oil and gas revenues, Iran had built both a defensive wall protecting itself internationally and domestically using proxies from their protectorates to damage their foes in the Arab world and to achieve their main objective, the destruction of Israel.

Two years later all their proxies have experienced such severe military damage as they have themselves, that they are totally isolated and incapable of defending themselves. Their proxies now listen to Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, and the USA – Iran no longer rules the roost.

Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad in Syria, the Houthis and Iraqi Shia militias do not wield the power and influence they wielded prior to Hamas’s assault on Israel. Indeed, Iran is politically isolated and economically on the verge of collapse as sanctions, failing infrastructure, water shortages, inadequate agricultural production, a worthless currency, and domestic turmoil all unite to weaken the totalitarian theocrats still clinging to power.

Neither Hamas nor Hezbollah have the weaponry or influence prior to October 7, and Iran no longer has the military, financial or political muscle to provide to them. The Houthis geographically are still totally reliant on Iran but have suffered enormous damage to their infrastructure which Iran cannot repair. Assad in Syria has gone and Syria’s current government is anti-Iran.

In conclusion it would take decades for Iran to recover from where they were some two years ago nor are, they able to assist repairing the damage suffered by their proxies.

There is an unreported famine in Yemen and Iran are literally weeks away from running out of clean water supplies. Afghanistan has exacerbated the water supply issue by reneging on agreements to supply Iran with water from certain dams. Iran is on the brink of social collapse exacerbated by climate change and mismanagement of her water and agricultural infrastructure. As I write, a major Iranian bank – Ayandeh Bank has gone broke further pressuring the collapsing economy. The Russian Bear and the Iranian Lion are both mortally wounded.

Russia and Iran – how the mighty fall.

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