The quiet tension in the room was palpable as Björn Höcke, the man many consider the most feared figure in German politics, prepared to speak. The audience, their mobile phones held high to record the moment, fell into a hushed silence. Höcke, co-head of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Thuringia, cleared his throat, took a sip of water, and with a grin, addressed the crowd: “I’ve got to protect my voice for my first speech as state premier.” The crowd erupted into cheers, reflecting the momentum that the far-right party has garnered in recent years.

As Germany braces for elections in three eastern states-Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg-next month, the country faces a potential political earthquake. These regions, traditionally strongholds of the far-right, could see the AfD emerge as the dominant party in all three states, a prospect that sends shivers down the spines of Germany’s political establishment. With the next general election looming in 2025, the rise of the AfD and the emergence of a new populist movement, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance or BSW), could significantly reshape the country’s political landscape.

The AfD, founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic party, has evolved into a powerful force on the far-right, particularly in eastern Germany. Polls suggest that the AfD could secure around 30 percent of the vote in Thuringia, where Höcke, a former history and sports teacher, has been a prominent figure. The party has been classified as a “confirmed rightwing extremist” organization by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution in both Thuringia and Saxony, with Brandenburg’s AfD chapter listed as “suspected rightwing extremist.”

Höcke, with his sharp rhetoric and radical views, has become the face of the AfD’s increasingly hardline stance on issues such as immigration, Islam, and Germany’s postwar democratic order. His ability to draw large, enthusiastic crowds underscores the deepening frustration and disillusionment among many Germans, particularly in the east, with the country’s political establishment.

In Thuringia’s capital, Erfurt, Höcke recently addressed a crowd of about 800 supporters, many of whom are working-class citizens who feel alienated from the mainstream political discourse. They gathered in a small square framed by communist-era housing blocks, where the mood was bullish, and the sense of rebellion against the government in Berlin was palpable. As Höcke railed against the authorities who have repeatedly charged him with incitement, his supporters, ranging from parents with AfD-blue helium balloons to older men with party-branded flyswatters, cheered him on.

Höcke’s rhetoric is sharp and unapologetic. He dismisses his opponents, including the leftist NGOs mobilizing against the far right, as “filled with self-hatred” and in need of therapy. His speeches are laced with references to nationalist leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, whom he praises for cracking down on progressive groups. This messaging resonates deeply with his supporters, who are increasingly concerned about what they see as the erosion of German identity and the rise of a multicultural society.

Germany’s electoral system, designed in the postwar period to prevent extremist fringes from gaining power, typically requires parties to form coalitions to govern. This system has, until now, kept the AfD out of state and federal government. However, the upcoming elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg could challenge this status quo.

The traditional parties, including the Christian Democrats (CDU), Social Democrats (SPD), and the Greens, have vowed never to form coalitions with the AfD. This “firewall” policy has been effective in marginalizing the far-right party, but it has also left the mainstream parties struggling to regain the trust of voters, particularly in the east. In this fractured electoral landscape, the AfD’s rise signals a significant shift in German politics.

André Brodocz, a political scientist at the University of Erfurt, predicts that while the “firewall” against the AfD is likely to hold, a sweep by the far-right party in these state elections could shift the center of gravity in German politics. Issues like migration, Germany’s military support for Ukraine, and the transition to green energy are likely to be influenced by the AfD’s strong performance. “Other parties will try to occupy the issues and positions of the AfD to conquer its voters” in the lead-up to the next general election, Brodocz notes.

Complicating the political landscape further is the emergence of the BSW party, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, a firebrand politician who has positioned her party as a “leftwing conservative” alternative to the AfD. Wagenknecht’s party, which is highly critical of migration, NATO, and Germany’s support for Ukraine, has quickly gained traction, polling in the double digits in all three states.

The BSW is seen as a more moderate alternative for voters who share the AfD’s skepticism of the political establishment but are uncomfortable with its more extreme positions. However, the party’s vagueness on key issues has led some, like the national daily Süddeutsche Zeitung, to describe it as a “black box” whose contents remain mysterious. Despite this, the BSW’s rise suggests that there is a significant portion of the electorate that is looking for alternatives to both the traditional parties and the far-right.

In Thuringia, the BSW’s candidate, Katja Wolf, has been vocal about the fears of the AfD that permeate the state. She argues that the BSW is responding to the spread of “hate” by addressing the enduring disappointment and alienation felt by many easterners. These sentiments are rooted in the unfulfilled promises made after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. While many easterners are materially better off, there remains a deep sense of inequality with the west, as well as frustration over the lack of access to essential services in rural areas.

The soaring cost of energy, the influx of more than a million Ukrainian refugees, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine have only exacerbated these feelings of resentment. A recent poll by the independent Allensbach Institute found that more than half of easterners believe Germany should strengthen ties with Russia, a stark contrast to the views in the west. Similarly, a significant portion of eastern voters believe that democracy in Germany is an illusion, with citizens having little real say in government decisions.

The rise of the AfD and the emergence of the BSW highlight the growing divide between east and west in Germany, as well as the increasing polarization of the country’s political landscape. As the state elections approach, the traditional parties face a daunting challenge: how to address the concerns of voters who feel left behind by globalization, demographic changes, and Germany’s role on the world stage, without ceding ground to the far-right or populist movements.

Bodo Ramelow, the current premier of Thuringia and a member of the far-left Linke party, acknowledges the difficulty of this task. He refuses to “insult AfD voters as fascists” and is instead focused on fighting for every vote against the far-right. Ramelow’s strategy is to emphasize the 70 percent of the population that does not support the AfD, rather than fixating on the 30 percent that does. However, he also recognizes the danger of the growing normalcy of far-right ideologies in the region.

The upcoming state elections are more than just a regional contest; they are a bellwether for the future of German politics. A strong showing by the AfD could signal a broader shift towards populism and far-right ideologies, while the rise of the BSW could further fragment the political landscape. As Germany’s political establishment grapples with these challenges, the country’s long-standing commitment to consensus-oriented politics and the lessons of its Nazi past will be put to the test.

In the end, the outcome of these elections will not only determine the future of Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg but also set the stage for the next general election and the direction of Germany’s political future. As the votes are counted, the world will be watching to see whether Germany will remain a bastion of stability in Europe or if it will be swept up in the rising tide of populism that has already reshaped so many other democracies around the globe.

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