Amidst the approaching two-year milestone of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States, along with the European Union and the United Kingdom, have unveiled a fresh wave of sanctions against Russia. However, this punitive measure coincides with Russia’s apparent gains on the battlefield, notably its recent capture of Avdiivka, a pivotal town in eastern Ukraine.
Analysts contend that the efficacy of previous sanctions has fallen short of expectations, highlighting a reluctance from the US and its Western allies to entertain compromise with Russia regarding the conflict in 2024.
Consequently, the prevailing sentiment suggests that a stalemate looms large, with prospects of a ceasefire remaining distant.
In the current global climate, marked by significant disruptions to security and economic stability, the United States appears to be reaping substantial benefits. Whether through leveraging its influence to foster bloc confrontation within Europe or capitalizing on lucrative gas and arms sales to the region, the US stands poised as a primary beneficiary of the ongoing turmoil. Nonetheless, experts caution that amidst this geopolitical maneuvering, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict threatens to escalate into a futile struggle devoid of victors. In response to this escalating crisis, China remains steadfast in its commitment to fostering peace talks and advocating for an early ceasefire, recognizing the imperative of averting further devastation and advancing diplomatic solutions.
In a significant announcement, US President Joe Biden declared on Friday that Washington will impose over 500 new sanctions specifically aimed at Russia, citing its involvement in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine and its treatment of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny.
Additionally, Biden outlined plans to enact fresh export restrictions targeting approximately 100 entities found to be supporting Russia. Furthermore, measures will be taken to further diminish Russia’s energy revenues, as stated in Biden’s official statement on the matter.
The recent imposition of sanctions by the United States, closely followed by similar moves from its allies, underscores a coordinated effort to penalize Russia for its actions. The United Kingdom announced over 50 additional sanctions against Russia, targeting both individuals and businesses deemed to be supporting Moscow’s military endeavors. Similarly, the European Union approved its 13th package of sanctions, encompassing nearly 200 individuals and entities allegedly linked to Russia’s operations, including entities from China and India. These measures, adopted on Friday, signal a unified front among Western powers in addressing Russia’s conduct.
However, despite these punitive actions, experts observe that the impact of Western sanctions on Russia has been limited. Moscow appears to be far from isolated, with its robust reserves of oil and natural gas serving as a source of financial and political resilience, as reported by The New York Times. While Western sanctions did exert short-term pressure on the Russian economy, the nation swiftly adjusted its policies and resumed growth, according to insights from Zhang Hong, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European, and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, as reported by the Global Times.
According to Zhang, the imposition of sanctions represents Western adherence to political correctness, yet they have notably failed to achieve their intended objectives. Despite multiple rounds of sanctions, Russia’s stance on the Ukraine crisis remains unchanged, and the anticipated significant economic repercussions have not materialized. Zhang characterized this outcome as a failure in effectively influencing Russia’s behavior through punitive measures.
The expert noted that compared to previous measures, recent sanctions have predominantly focused on indirect approaches, primarily by limiting Russia’s trade and financial interactions with other nations, thereby constricting its external economic engagements.
These sanctions coincide with a period where Russia appears to be gaining ground on the battlefield, notably seizing the eastern city of Avdiivka in Ukraine last week. Reports suggest Ukraine is grappling with ammunition shortages and insufficient troop levels to effectively counter Russian advances.
In anticipation of the crisis anniversary, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev asserted on Thursday that Russia will persist in its conflict with Ukraine until it secures key objectives, including the coastal city of Odessa and Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, as reported by Russian media outlet RT.
While some observers, such as former CIA Director and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, contend that Russia has regained momentum and broken the stalemate, Chinese experts caution that the seesaw battle dynamics may persist into 2024.
Zhang remarked on Medvedev’s statement, interpreting it as indicative of Russia’s confidence in its ongoing “special operation”. He suggested that Moscow’s primary objective is to safeguard its security interests while managing controllable risks within the conflict’s scope.
Zhang emphasized that the recent imposition of sanctions signals a clear stance from the US and Western nations: they are unwilling to compromise with Russia. Despite Ukraine’s recent passivity on the battlefield, Zhang expressed skepticism regarding the likelihood of Ukraine suffering a decisive defeat.
Furthermore, Zhang highlighted the EU’s commitment to Ukraine’s stability by approving the extension of 50 billion Euros (US$54 billion) in aid from 2024 to 2027. This decision underscores the West’s continued support for Ukraine and its determination not to abandon the country in its struggle against Russian aggression.
Experts have highlighted the significant role of US dynamics in shaping the long-term trajectory of the battlefield situation in Ukraine. Key factors include the ability of the US to navigate domestic partisan divisions concerning support for Kiev, as well as potential shifts in US policies, particularly in the event of a return to power by former President Trump.
Looking ahead to 2024, Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, cautioned that the continuation of a stalemate and attrition scenario in Ukraine is increasingly probable. According to Li, the conflict shows no signs of abating, with no clear resolution in sight for the foreseeable future.
Amidst the latest British and EU sanctions against Russia which also encompassed Chinese companies, the Chinese Embassy in the UK vehemently opposed the move, affirming China’s longstanding commitment to maintaining an objective and just stance on the Ukraine crisis.
However, ahead of the conflict’s anniversary, Western media outlets expressed skepticism regarding China’s position. The Voice of America accused China of failing to exert pressure on Russia to halt its aggression, while certain German media sources suggested that the sanctions had inadvertently pushed Russia closer to China, positioning it as the primary beneficiary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In response, Li underscored that Western attempts to sway China’s stance through public opinion would not deter China from maintaining its neutral position as a major global power.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated China’s dedication to promoting peace talks during a meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on February 17. Wang emphasized China’s commitment to refraining from exacerbating the situation or exploiting it for personal gain, including abstaining from the sale of lethal weapons to conflict zones or parties.
Experts, including Zhang, have argued that while sanctions and weapons aid have failed to alter Russia’s position, they have only served to prolong the conflict and exacerbate the damage inflicted upon Ukraine. To mitigate further losses, Zhang stressed the urgent need for an early ceasefire and resumption of peace talks.
Zhang highlighted the widespread impact of the conflict on major economies, including China, affecting both the security environment and economic stability. Moreover, he noted the negative repercussions on China-EU and China-US relations stemming from the ongoing crisis.
Analysts have pointed out that thus far, the United States stands as the primary beneficiary of the conflict. The influx of US liquefied natural gas into the EU market has garnered a significant share, while exports of weapons have proven highly lucrative for US military manufacturers. Additionally, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has bolstered US influence over Europe, leading to a resurgence of bloc politics.
However, analysts caution that despite short-term gains for some parties, the conflict ultimately represents a no-win scenario. The long-term consequences are predicted to be marked by tragedy and disaster, with no clear victors emerging from the protracted conflict.
Li cautioned that if the US’s objective is to maximize the weakening of Russia by fully exhausting Ukraine, it could lead to dire consequences. Even if this goal were achieved, it would likely escalate strategic tensions between Russia, the US, and Europe to a more dangerous level.
Furthermore, Li warned against the prospect of the US and Western nations waiting until Ukraine is on the brink of collapse before directly engaging Russia in battle. Such a strategy, according to Li, would be playing with fire. He emphasized that engaging a nuclear power like Russia on the battlefield could precipitate a nuclear war and potentially escalate into a catastrophic global conflict.
In such a scenario, Li stressed that all parties involved would suffer immense losses, with Russia and Ukraine bearing the brunt of the devastation alongside the US and Europe. The repercussions would extend far beyond the immediate conflict zone, jeopardizing global security and resulting in untold tragedy and disaster for humanity as a whole.
