Guatemala faces a precarious juncture in its democratic journey. Following the surprising victory of opposition candidate Bernardo Arévalo in the recent elections, uncertainty looms large over the political landscape. The impending inauguration on January 14th is shadowed by escalating tensions as entrenched elites maneuver to thwart Arévalo’s ascent to power.
The seismic win of Bernardo Arévalo, a torchbearer against corruption and the offspring of Guatemala’s inaugural democratically elected president Juan José Arévalo, signals the populace’s profound discontent with the systemic corruption plaguing the nation. This corruption has deepened during President Giammattei’s tenure, aided by Attorney General Consuelo Porras, who wields the law as a weapon to shield the elite and obstruct investigations into high-level corruption.
Arévalo’s pledge to combat corruption and reinstate the rule of law poses a direct challenge to Guatemala’s political elite. In response, a campaign leveraging the justice system has emerged to stifle the transfer of power in January 2024. This agenda has seen Arévalo’s emerging opposition party, Semilla, suspended, a decision bolstered by the Constitutional Court.
Furthermore, Attorney General Porras has leveled baseless accusations of money laundering and fraud against Arévalo and his deputy, Karin Herrera.
The fate of these indictments rests with the Supreme Court, where the potential stripping of their immunity hangs in the balance. The recent replacement of long-serving Supreme Court magistrates, with a majority facing previous corruption allegations, amplifies concerns of a biased decision favoring Arévalo’s persecution.
Efforts to thwart the transition also include challenging the election results citing alleged fraud. Despite the Electoral Supreme Electoral Tribunal’s validation of the elections, repeated searches of their offices and the removal of magistrates’ immunity cast a pall over the legitimacy of the electoral process.
However, amidst these assaults on democracy, a glimmer of hope emerges. The Constitutional Court’s mandate for Congress to ensure the inauguration of all elected officials from the 2023 process stands in stark contrast to the Attorney General Office’s persistent claims of a null election.
The resistance against this erosion of democracy has united diverse factions. Indigenous leaders, historically marginalized and subject to grave injustices, have embraced non-violent protests, becoming moral figureheads in the battle for electoral integrity. They are bolstered by a coalition of 35 civil society organizations forming the Alliance for Reforms (AxR), along with the Catholic Church’s vocal opposition to governmental malfeasance.
Notably, Guatemala’s business elite, typically aligned with the political establishment, has diverged by acknowledging the rightful ascension of Arévalo and Herrera, denouncing actions that contradict the official election outcome.
Internationally, condemnation has been robust. Organizations like the Organization of American States (OAS), the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations have decried the subversion of democracy in Guatemala. The alignment among these entities could serve as a pivotal deterrent against further erosion.
The unity among the populace, the business elite, and the international community in opposing this coup offers a beacon of hope. Their collective stance must persist not only until Arévalo’s assumed inauguration but also beyond, as Guatemala endeavors to restore justice, uphold the rule of law, and safeguard its democracy.
It’s evident that the road ahead for Guatemala’s democracy is fraught with challenges after years of institutional decay. Arévalo will require unwavering support to mend the fractures and reinstate justice and democracy in a nation yearning for change.
