New Delhi, 11 April (Hindustan Times). The Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday predicted normal southwest monsoon (June to September) in the country. The department says that the rainfall across the country will be 96 per cent of the long period average. About 83 per cent of the rainfall will occur during the four months from June to September. The long period average of rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.
Dr. Mrityunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the India Meteorological Department, said that many areas of Peninsular India and adjoining East Central India, East India, Northeast India and parts of Northwest India are likely to receive normal rainfall. Normal or below normal rainfall is likely over some parts of northwest India and parts of west central India and parts of northeast India.
Mohapatra says that the effect of El Nino, which causes worldwide warming, can develop during the monsoon and its effect can be seen in the second half of the monsoon.
According to them, at present the La Nina conditions have changed to neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific. Climate model forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions will develop during the monsoon season. Presently neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and latest climate model forecasts indicate that positive 100% conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season.
During February and March 2023, the snow cover areas of the Northern Hemisphere were found to be less than normal. In the Northern Hemisphere as well as in Eurasia, the extent of winter and spring snow cover tends to have a generally inverse relationship with the southwest monsoon season rainfall.
The Meteorological Department says it will issue its latest forecast for monsoon rainfall in the last week of May.
