Will Japan recognize a “Palestinian state” at the upcoming United Nations session?  Apparently, it seems it would. Historically, Japan has supported a two-state solution. It has been of the view that both Israel and a future independent “Palestinian state” should co-exist, side by side, in peace and security.

The other day (September 16, 2025) when  the Israel Defense Forces announced to  expand its ground operations in the Gaza Strip, Japan’s ministry of foreign affairs condemned it. It assessed the ongoing Israeli actions, including the recent military operations, might undermine the very foundation of a two-state solution. It urged Israel to immediately cease all unilateral actions that run counter to the realization of a two-state solution. It called upon all parties to the Gaza conflict to return to negotiations and work toward achieving a ceasefire and the release of hostages.

At a recent UN meeting, Japan was among 142 nations that voted in favor of a declaration outlining “tangible, timebound, and irreversible steps” towards a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians. Recently, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi expressed a “grave sense of crisis” over the Israeli ground assault on Gaza City. He said that because of this “the very foundations of a two-state solution could be collapsing.” He urged Israel to “take substantive steps to end the severe humanitarian crisis, including famine, as soon as possible.”

Also, Japan is under pressure from some of its allies in the international affairs to recognize the Palestinian state. The United Kingdom, France, and Canada have declared that they would recognize a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) this month. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has reportedly urged his Japanese counterpart Takeshi Iwaya to follow suit.

However, in my opinion, Japan is unlikely to recognize Palestine as a state right now. After his resignation from the office, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may not feel stable enough to take any decision in the matter. He may skip the September 22 meeting of the United Nation in New York on the subject.

Japan may prefer conducting a “comprehensive assessment” of the whole issue and procrastinating in the matter. Tokyo has a tight rope to walk at the moment. Washington, its chief security ally, is not inclined to give statehood to Palestine. The Donald J Trump administration in the United States wants Japan to avoid recognizing Palestine.

Tokyo itself may not be inclined to recognizing Palestine. It seems to calculate that doing so might strain its growing ties with Jerusalem. Relations between Tokyo and Jerusalem have got much better in the recent years. During Prime Minister Abe’s visit to Israel in 2018 the two nations signed a number of agreements in areas, such as scientific and technological cooperation, agricultural exchanges, cyber and health knowledge and tourism.

In August 2022, during Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s visit to Japan, Jerusalem and Tokyo signed a memorandum of understanding for defense cooperation.

Most importantly, Japan is an advanced democracy today. It is highly unlikely to be enthusiastic about the creation of the proposed Palestinian state which has little space for pluralism, the essence of democracy.

Many Japanese today seem to be aware of the dangerous implications of the proposed Palestinian statehood on the inhabitant in the region. They know there is little truth in the recent UN Commission of Inquiry report that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza.

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