As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, the political stage is set for a high-stakes contest between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump. Both candidates are gearing up for an intense campaign season that will largely focus on a few key battleground states-those crucial territories where the outcome of the election will be decided. The intricate dynamics of these states will play a pivotal role in determining the next president of the United States, making them the epicenter of political strategy, voter outreach, and national attention.
The US presidential election is not determined by a simple national popular vote. Instead, the president is chosen through the Electoral College, a system that allocates a certain number of votes to each state based on its representation in Congress. There are a total of 538 Electoral College votes, and a candidate needs at least 270 of these votes to win the presidency. This system means that while some states have a predictable outcome-such as California leaning Democratic and South Carolina favoring Republicans-the real contest lies in the so-called battleground or swing states, where the outcome is uncertain and both parties have a viable chance of winning.
In the 2024 election, seven states have emerged as critical battlegrounds: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Each of these states presents unique challenges and opportunities for the candidates, making them the primary focus of the campaign efforts in the weeks leading up to Election Day on November 5.
Nevada and Arizona, both located in the western United States, are key to the election’s outcome, albeit for different reasons. Nevada, with its six electoral votes, may seem small in comparison to other states, but in a close race, every vote counts. Nevada has experienced significant population growth in recent years, driven largely by an influx of Latino voters, who now make up a substantial portion of the electorate. The state’s largest city, Las Vegas, is a major urban center where economic issues, including the tourism industry’s recovery post-pandemic, will be a central campaign theme.
Arizona, with its 11 electoral votes, is another critical state where the candidates must tread carefully. Arizona’s long border with Mexico makes immigration a particularly sensitive issue. The state has seen a significant rise in undocumented immigrants, creating concerns over border security and economic impacts. However, Arizona’s population includes a large number of citizens who trace their roots to immigrants, making this a complex and nuanced issue that both Harris and Trump will need to navigate carefully. Phoenix, Arizona’s capital and largest city, will be a focal point for both campaigns, with its growing economy and diverse population representing a microcosm of the broader national debate.
The Rust Belt states of Wisconsin and Michigan, with 10 and 15 electoral votes respectively, are another key battleground in the 2024 election. Both states have historically been strongholds of American manufacturing, but in recent decades, they have experienced significant economic decline, leading to widespread discontent among voters. This economic downturn has made these states more politically volatile, with voters swinging between parties in recent elections.
Wisconsin and Michigan share cultural similarities, with large rural areas juxtaposed against major urban centers like Milwaukee and Detroit. These cities are not only economic hubs but also represent significant voting blocs that could sway the election’s outcome. Michigan, in particular, has a substantial Black population concentrated in Detroit, making it a crucial target for Harris, who will likely emphasize issues of racial justice and economic recovery in her campaign. Meanwhile, Trump will focus on appealing to white, working-class voters who feel left behind by globalization and economic change.
Georgia and North Carolina, both with 16 electoral votes, are the key battlegrounds in the South. Georgia, which played a decisive role in the 2020 election, has seen rapid population growth and increasing political diversity in recent years. The state is home to Atlanta, a major urban center with a significant Black population that forms a crucial part of the Democratic Party’s base. However, Georgia also has large rural areas that lean Republican, creating a stark contrast within the state. The outcome in Georgia will likely hinge on voter turnout in Atlanta and other urban areas versus the rural counties.
North Carolina, while traditionally leaning Republican in presidential elections, remains competitive in 2024. The state’s diverse geography, which includes the Appalachian Mountains and the Atlantic coast, is mirrored by its demographic diversity. North Carolina has a growing population, with a significant Black minority that could be pivotal in a close race. The state also has a mix of urban and rural areas, with Charlotte and Raleigh representing major urban centers. While Republicans dominate the state legislature, the presence of a Democratic governor adds an element of uncertainty to the state’s electoral outcome.
Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is the largest and arguably the most critical of the battleground states. Often described as a “must-win” state, Pennsylvania is unique in its cultural and political diversity. The state includes both heavily urbanized areas, such as Philadelphia, and vast rural regions, each with distinct political leanings. Philadelphia, one of the largest cities in the US, is a Democratic stronghold, but the rest of the state tends to lean Republican, particularly in the rural areas.
What makes Pennsylvania particularly interesting is the presence of three distinct subcultures, as identified by journalist Colin Woodard: Yankeedom, the Midlands, and Greater Appalachia. These subcultures represent different historical and cultural influences, leading to a state that is divided not just geographically but also in terms of values and political priorities. The ability to appeal to these diverse constituencies will be crucial for both Harris and Trump if they hope to secure Pennsylvania’s electoral votes.
Despite their differences, the battleground states share some common characteristics that will shape the 2024 election. All these states have experienced some form of demographic or economic change in recent years, whether through population growth, economic decline, or shifts in the political landscape. This dynamism makes them unpredictable and thus highly contested.
The key issues in these states mirror those of the nation as a whole, with the economy, immigration, and the state of American democracy being top concerns for voters. However, the prioritization of these issues varies by state. For example, immigration is a particularly pressing issue in Arizona, while economic recovery and job creation are more critical in the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin and Michigan. Access to abortion has also become a significant issue in several battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, reflecting the broader national debate following recent Supreme Court decisions.
As the campaign unfolds, these battleground states will be at the heart of the candidates’ strategies. Both Harris and Trump will need to tailor their messages to resonate with the diverse populations of these states, addressing local concerns while also presenting a coherent national vision. The outcome in these states will not only determine the next president but also shape the direction of American politics for the next four years. As such, they are the states to watch as the 2024 election approaches.
