Unpacking the Biden administration’s approach to Pakistan’s elections

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In the lead-up to the scheduled February 8 elections in Pakistan, the Biden administration’s conspicuous silence has become a focal point of discussion, particularly in light of its active involvement in Bangladesh’s recent elections. The distinct lack of engagement and commentary on the Pakistani electoral process, which is marred by concerns of potential irregularities and manipulation, has left many observers puzzled. The juxtaposition with the administration’s unexpected interest in Bangladesh raises questions about the selectivity of its approach in South Asian politics. Even such actions was seen by many Western media as “bullying”.

Clearly with the motive of exerting pressure of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and ruling Awami League and help Bangladeshi Nationalist Party (BNP) and its ideological allies including Jamaat-e-Islami in returning to power, Biden administration had announced “visa policy” on May 24, 2023, where Secretary of State Antony Blinken said:

Today, I am announcing a new visa policy under Section 212(a)(3)(C) (“3C”) of the Immigration and Nationality Act to support Bangladesh’s goal of holding free, fair, and peaceful national elections.  Under this policy, the United States will be able to restrict the issuance of visas for any Bangladeshi individual, believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh.  This includes current and former Bangladeshi officials, members of pro-government and opposition political parties, and members of law enforcement, the judiciary, and security services.  The United States notified the Bangladeshi government of this decision on May 3, 2023.

Actions that undermine the democratic election process include vote rigging, voter intimidation, the use of violence to prevent people from exercising their right to freedoms of association and peaceful assembly, and the use of measures designed to prevent political parties, voters, civil society, or the media from disseminating their views.

The holding of free and fair elections is the responsibility of everyone—voters, political parties, the government, the security forces, civil society, and the media.  I am announcing this policy to lend our support to all those seeking to advance democracy in Bangladesh.

Under this visa policy, the United States could restrict the issuance of visas for individuals believed to undermine the democratic election process in Bangladesh, encompassing officials, members of political parties, and members of law enforcement, the judiciary, and security services.

The active involvement in Bangladesh’s electoral affairs stands in stark contrast to the muted response regarding the February 8 elections in Pakistan. The Human Rights Commission in Pakistan has raised significant concerns about “pre-poll rigging” and “blatant manipulation” in the electoral process, painting a picture of an impending election that may not be conducted in a fair and free manner. The historical context of military interference in Pakistani politics, acting as a “kingmaker,” adds another layer of complexity to these concerns.

Pakistan’s 76-year history as an independent nation has witnessed the military playing a pivotal role, both in periods of direct control through coups d’état and in influencing political affairs when not officially in power. The military’s ability to shape the selection and rise to power of specific political parties has been a consistent feature of Pakistani politics for over three decades. General Qamar Javed Bajwa openly acknowledged the military’s role in facilitating the ascent of Prime Minister Imran Khan to power, underscoring the depth of military influence in shaping the country’s political landscape.

The military’s influence extends beyond the formal governance structure, actively restricting the powers of politicians and favoring puppet-like figures who align with its prevailing interests. Nawaz Sharif’s experiences in 2013 serve as a poignant example. Despite winning the election, Nawaz Sharif fell out of favor with the military when he attempted to pursue foreign and security policies independent of its influence. The military’s opposition to Sharif’s efforts to build ties with India and its subsequent support for Imran Khan in the 2018 elections exemplify its determination to maintain control over the nation’s policies.

However, the once-allied Imran Khan and the military found themselves at odds, leading to Khan’s orchestrated removal from office in April 2022.

Tensions escalated, and Khan openly criticized the military, prompting measures to disqualify him from the upcoming elections. The military’s alleged efforts to exclude the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party from the electoral race underscore the challenges to democracy in Pakistan.

As Pakistan faces significant security and economic challenges, including tensions with Iran and terrorist attacks from Afghanistan, internal issues such as inflation, power shortages, and declining exports compound the nation’s troubles. The recent imprisonment of Imran Khan and his party members, along with bans on political participation, signals the military’s attempts to eliminate Khan from politics entirely. The judiciary’s decisions have been criticized as politically motivated, raising concerns about the integrity of the democratic process.

The Biden administration’s silence on Pakistan’s elections, in contrast to its proactive stance in Bangladesh, raises questions about the motives behind this selective engagement. As the geopolitical landscape in South Asia evolves, the need for the United States to address concerns about electoral integrity and democratic principles becomes increasingly apparent. The February 8 elections in Pakistan are pivotal for the nation’s future, and the role of the military in shaping political outcomes will likely continue to be a significant factor.

In crossing this complex political terrain, the international community, including the Biden administration, faces the challenge of ensuring that democratic values prevail in the region. The juxtaposition of its actions in Bangladesh and the relative silence on Pakistan underscores the need for a nuanced and consistent approach to promote democracy and political stability in South Asia. The coming weeks leading up to the February 8 elections will undoubtedly be crucial in shaping the trajectory of Pakistani politics, and the world will be watching to see how the Biden administration responds to the unfolding developments.

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