In recent weeks, Myanmar’s military junta has faced significant challenges from rebel outfits in certain bordering regions, including Bangladesh, India, and China. As the military rulers lose ground, India finds itself at a strategic crossroads, prompting a reconsideration of its approach towards its eastern neighbor. The security implications for India’s northeastern states, particularly Manipur and Mizoram, have become a focal point of concern, leading to a potential shift in diplomatic and security strategies.
The success of three key rebel groups in Myanmar has caught the attention of international observers. The Arakan Army, operating in the western province of Rakhine, recently claimed control of Paletwa, a town sharing borders with India and Bangladesh. This development poses a significant challenge to the junta, which seized power through a coup in February 2021. Another rebel group in the Three Brotherhood Alliance seized Laukkai town in the northern province of Shan, bordering China, further complicating the situation.
India has crucial strategic and economic interests in the region, especially concerning the Kaladan River multimodal project. The capture of Paletwa by the Arakan army raises concerns, as India has invested significantly in the project, providing a trade route opening to the Bay of Bengal. Additionally, ongoing infrastructure projects like the trilateral highway connecting Manipur with Myanmar and Thailand, as part of India’s Act East policy outreach, could face challenges due to the escalating conflict.
The northeastern Indian states of Manipur and Mizoram share borders with Myanmar’s provinces of China, Rakhine, Kachine, and Sagain. India’s security concerns are heightened due to cross-border migration into Mizoram and Manipur, as unrest in Myanmar leads to an influx of refugees. The porous border areas have become hotbeds for smuggling activities, including drugs, gold, and weapons, adding urgency to India’s reassessment of its strategy.
Amid the evolving situation, India is exploring various options to secure its interests and address security challenges. While maintaining engagement with the military rulers in Nay Pyi Daw, New Delhi is considering opening channels of communication with ethnic groups residing in Myanmar’s states bordering northeastern India. This approach aims to establish a more nuanced and region-specific strategy that goes beyond dealing solely with the central authority.
A growing perspective within the Indian establishment suggests that New Delhi should establish communication with Myanmar rebels along its borders. The argument is that the writ of the Myanmar rulers does not extend to these areas, which are known for illicit activities. Smuggling of drugs, gold, and weapons has created a security vacuum that needs to be addressed. By engaging with local ethnic groups and rebels, India could potentially contribute to stability in the region and secure its northeastern borders.
The unrest in Myanmar, particularly in Chin province, has led to the influx of thousands of common people and wounded Myanmar troops into Mizoram. These refugees seek safety in the northeastern Indian state, where they are accommodated in camps. The people of Mizoram share an ethnic affinity with the residents of Chin and have welcomed the refugees. As India grapples with security considerations, it must also navigate the humanitarian aspects of the refugee crisis, balancing national interests with a commitment to humanity.
For India, the security of its border areas with Myanmar takes precedence over other considerations for peace and progress in northeastern India. While the global community, including the United States and the West, imposes sanctions against the Myanmar junta and aligns with pro-democracy groups, India has refrained from full participation. This strategic choice is rooted in the prioritization of regional security and stability over broader geopolitical alignments.
As Myanmar faces internal turmoil and rebel successes, India finds itself at a crucial juncture in its approach to its eastern neighbor. The security implications for northeastern states, coupled with strategic economic interests, demand a careful reassessment of India’s diplomatic and security strategies. Balancing engagement with the central authority, Nay Pyi Daw, and exploring channels of communication with local ethnic groups and rebels presents a nuanced path forward for India. The evolving situation underscores the need for a dynamic and flexible foreign policy that aligns with India’s national interests while addressing the complex challenges posed by the changing dynamics in Myanmar.
