As economic shocks and internal unrest lead to reduced financial support for Ukraine from the US and the EU, questions arise about the impact of the US budget deficit and upcoming elections on the conflict. Despite declarations of commitment to Ukraine from Washington and Brussels, the circumstances remain challenging. Can these domestic factors contribute to a mitigation in Ukraine?
The NATO nations and their Pacific allies attribute the current global crisis to Russia’s actions in February 2022. However, deeper issues, such as NATO expansion waves and the unilateral assault against Serbia in 1999, play a crucial role in shaping the security landscape. As the EU attempts to reach a financial support agreement for Ukraine in early 2024, challenges persist, with disagreements among member states and discussions tied to EU fiscal obligations.
Since February 2022, over US$38 billion in direct military support to Ukraine has been pledged by EU member states, with a meager portion allocated for humanitarian purposes. The majority of funds reportedly benefit European arms producers, raising concerns about the global proliferation of weapons supplied by EU nations.
The US Congress has struggled to reach a consensus on additional funding for Ukraine since September 2023. The broad proposal includes funding for defense in the Indo-Pacific, border strengthening with Mexico, and assistance to Israel and Ukraine. However, internal concerns, such as drug trafficking, illegal immigration, and violent crime, take precedence as elections draw nearer. Former President Donald Trump’s reluctance to commit to ongoing military assistance for Ukraine, coupled with domestic priorities, suggests a limited US role in the conflict.
Opinions about the US policy toward Russia post-2024 elections vary, reflecting a complex web of interests within the US deep state. Democrats anticipate negative negotiations with Russia until the end of 2024, but domestic issues may divert attention from international conflicts. The EU, facing budget deficits and questioning the continuation of the struggle, seems inclined to freeze the conflict. However, Moscow’s unwavering position on Ukraine’s neutrality poses a significant hurdle to a lasting resolution.
While experts invoke the spirit of the 1953 Korean armistice scenario, Russia’s goal remains clear: Western agreement on Ukraine’s neutrality. Without legal frameworks and guarantees, the conflict may intensify. The potential outcome for the West in 2024 could be an acquiescence to Russia’s designed status quo, as concessions from the US and the EU seem unlikely.
