As Taiwan approaches its presidential and legislative elections on January 13, tensions surrounding the island’s relationship with mainland China have taken center stage. The election outcomes hold significant implications for East Asia and global geopolitics.
The primary concern centers on Taiwan’s potential deviation from the One China Policy and the possibility of declaring independence, a move viewed as a major threat to regional peace. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) aims for peaceful reunification, provided Taiwan refrains from formally declaring independence, which could escalate into military conflict.
A 2023 poll by Taiwan’s National Chengchi University’s Election Study sheds light on public sentiments. A majority, 88.1 percent, prefer maintaining the status quo, with 60.7 percent having no specific future goal in mind. Only a minimal percentage supports immediate unification (1.6 percent) or independence (4.5 percent). Despite this, the US has struggled to win the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese on this issue.
The three main contenders in the election are the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), and the relatively new Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). While the DPP leans towards independence and is critical of the PRC, the other two seek to understand the mainland better and preserve the existing status quo.
Current polling positions the DPP as the front-runner, but its lead is decreasing. A recent poll showed DPP’s Lai at 38.9 percent, KMT’s Hou at 35.8 percent, and TPP’s Ko at 22.4 percent. The combined vote for the Mainland-friendly parties, KMT and TPP, stands at 58.2 percent. However, Taiwan’s electoral system, based on plurality, raises the possibility of a DPP victory due to the opposition’s split between KMT and TPP.
Concerning American opinion, a Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs survey indicates that a majority (56 percent) of Americans oppose sending US troops to Taiwan. However, this sentiment may change if a conflict prolongs, akin to the situation in the Ukraine proxy war. Growing anti-interventionist sentiment in Congress, particularly among Republicans, reflects a potential reluctance to fund conflicts abroad.
American policy of – “Our bullets, their blood” scenario in Taiwan, is a matter of serious concern. The DPP’s decision to extend compulsory military service from 4 months to one year from 2024 is considered a significant step in this direction. In terms of weaponry, Taiwan has been purchasing billions in arms from the US since 1979, with recent arms sales authorized by the Biden administration. The financial burden on the US raises questions about its sustainability, considering the vast distance between the two nations.
The US strategy appears to be aimed at provoking the PRC into military action to damage its reputation, thereby encouraging neighboring nations to bolster their military and join US-led anti-China alliances. If this strategy fails, the US may resort to false flag operations or fabrications.
As Taiwan approaches its election day, the choices made by its people are crucial not only for their own future but also for regional stability. The hope is that the elected government will be independent-minded and not solely aligned with what is perceived as belligerent US foreign policy. Additionally, it is expected that a Taiwanese vote for such a government could inspire a similar sentiment of anti-interventionism in the US.
