With the 2024 presidential race looming, the Democratic Party faces an uphill battle against Republican candidate Donald Trump. Polls already indicate Trump’s strong lead, posing a potential landslide victory over Joe Biden. To salvage their chances, Democrats entertain the idea of Biden stepping down to allow for a replacement candidate. However, Biden’s reluctance to withdraw complicates this strategy, making the path to a new nominee uncertain before the Democratic convention in August next year.
As the electoral calendar unfolds, the early contests such as the Iowa Republican caucus and the New Hampshire primary in January, followed by several others in February and “Super Tuesday” in March, play a role in the delegate allocation. These contests, whether through caucuses or primaries, set the stage for the eventual selection of each party’s candidate.
According to media reports, the first contest is the Iowa Republican caucus on January 15, followed by the New Hampshire primary for both parties on January 23. There are several other contests in February before many states vote on “Super Tuesday”, March 5. The early contests account for a low percentage of total delegates, with under 10 percent of delegates determined by the Michigan primary on February 27. A “caucus” is managed by the state party, and often requires voters to gather at a particular time. A “primary” is managed by the state’s electoral authority, and is administered in the same way as a general election. Turnout at primaries is much higher than at caucuses. In 2024, the large majority of contests use primaries.
In the realm of polling, Trump maintains a commanding lead among Republicans nationally and in key states like Iowa, overshadowing contenders like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. On the Democratic side, no prominent Democrat has challenged President Joe Biden. Biden has 65.8 percent nationally with Marianne Williamson on 7.6 percent and Dean Phillips on 5.4 percent.
The dynamics of the electoral college, where 538 electoral votes decide the presidency, remain crucial. Trump’s victory in 2016 despite losing the popular vote, and Biden’s slim margin in certain key states in 2020, underscore the significance of these votes.
As public opinion fluctuates, Biden’s approval ratings have dwindled, while Trump’s have shown a slight improvement. National polls consistently show Trump leading by a margin, a factor compounded by the potential skew in electoral votes.
With both Biden and Trump approaching their late 70s, considerations about their age and the impact on the election arise. Early polls hint that a younger Democratic candidate could fare better against Trump, signaling a potential strategy shift.
It may be mentioned here that by November 5, 2024 election, Biden will be almost 82 and Trump 78. Early November Siena polls for The New York Times gave Trump four-to-ten-point leads in five of the six closest 2020 Biden-won states.
While Trump led overall by five points in the Siena polls, an unnamed generic Democrat led Trump by eight. In a similar exercise a year before the 2020 election, Biden led Trump by two and a generic Democrat led by three. This implies replacing Biden with a far younger Democrat would enhance their hopes of beating Trump.
In an early December national Wall Street Journal poll, two-thirds rated the economy poor or not good, and two-thirds said it had become worse in the past two years, during Biden’s tenure. Trump led Biden by 52–35 on best to handle the economy. By 53–23, voters thought Biden’s policies had hurt rather than helped them personally, while they thought Trump’s policies had helped by 49–37.
Economic sentiments significantly influence voter perspectives, with concerns about inflation, real wages, and the state of the economy dominating discussions. Biden’s policies face scrutiny in comparison to Trump’s, especially regarding handling the economy, an area where Trump holds a substantial lead according to polls.
Despite positive job figures and a decreasing unemployment rate, the economy’s performance remains a crucial factor in shaping public opinion leading up to the election.
Trump’s legal challenges, including trials related to alleged election interference and other charges, loom in the background, potentially impacting his standing in the polls. However, even if convicted, Trump’s candidacy remains viable, albeit potentially affected by public perception.
For Biden, hopes hinge on an economic upturn and potential legal implications for Trump. Yet, concerns persist about Biden’s age and perceived policy missteps, particularly in foreign affairs, which could shape the election narrative.
The countdown to the general election continues, with economic trends and legal proceedings poised to influence the trajectory of a race marked by uncertainties and strategic considerations for both parties.
