The Biden administration’s recent actions in Bangladesh have sparked a wave of confusion and speculation. The United States, traditionally a beacon of democratic values, seems to be sending mixed signals in its approach to Bangladesh’s political dynamics. The apparent endorsement of the ultra-Islamist Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) juxtaposed with the sudden recall of US ambassador to Dhaka, Peter D. Haas, and the decision to send a team of observers to monitor the upcoming national parliament elections, raises critical questions about the US’s intentions.
However, it is commendable that the US is showing concern about election-related violence in Bangladesh. In recent times, the country has witnessed a disturbing trend of violence, with hundreds of vehicles being set ablaze and significant damage to private property, amounting to millions of dollars. The presence of international observers, especially from the US, could play a vital role in deterring such acts of violence and ensuring a peaceful election process.
The US has shown a growing interest in Bangladesh’s political dynamics, particularly in the context of the upcoming elections. Several reports suggest the American support for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and other Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) to regain power. This shift in US focus raises concerns about the potential impact on Bangladesh’s secular governance and regional stability. The BNP’s historical ties to Islamist ideologies and conservative elements pose questions about the future of governance in Bangladesh, a country with a diverse population of 170 million. The potential return of the BNP to power, with its Islamist leanings, has sparked fears about the safety and freedoms of religious and ethnic minorities, as well as potential setbacks in women’s rights advancements.
Simultaneously, this evolving geopolitical scenario has led to increasing discord between India and the United States. India has expressed strong disagreement with the US approach, accusing Washington of attempting to destabilize Bangladesh’s secular government under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. This disagreement was notably evident during the recent 2+2 dialogue between the US and India in New Delhi, where the joint statement conspicuously omitted any reference to Bangladesh. India’s stance, emphasizing political stability and respect for Bangladesh’s democratic process, reflects a readiness to challenge the US narrative and underscores the complexities of regional geopolitics. The potential risks of Islamist forces returning to power in Bangladesh are a matter of significant concern, not just for Bangladesh but also for its neighbors, particularly India.
The BNP, known for its ultra-Islamist agenda and extremely radical political stance, seems to have garnered an implicit nod from the US. This move is perplexing, considering the US’s longstanding commitment to combating religious extremism and promoting democratic governance globally. “In October, a delegation from the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI) visited Dhaka to assess the pre-election political situation, taking into consideration the environment surrounding the upcoming national parliament elections in Bangladesh,” reported Prothom Alo. This visit and the interactions with various political entities, including the BNP, signal a significant shift in US foreign policy.
Further complicating the scenario is the recall of Ambassador Haas. This step, followed by the announcement of deploying election observers, is shrouded in ambiguity. The observers, comprising four specialists and a coordinator, are scheduled to arrive in Bangladesh “weeks before the election”. Their extended “stay of six to eight weeks”, as specified in a letter to the Election Commission by NDI and IRI, is unusual and indicative of more than just a routine observation mission.
The deployment of these observers, while a common international practice to ensure electoral integrity, in this context, seems to carry additional weight. “The delegation conducted separate meetings with key figures, including senior members of the Cabinet, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Election Commission, the Awami League party, various political parties including the BNP, civil society representatives, foreign diplomats, and other stakeholders”, as per the Prothom Alo news article. This extensive engagement raises the question: Is the US merely observing, or is there an underlying strategy at play?
The recent maneuvers by the Biden administration in Bangladesh present a multifaceted narrative, one that is open to various interpretations. On one hand, these actions could be seen as a commitment to uphold a fair and transparent electoral process in Bangladesh. The US’s decision to send a team of observers to monitor the upcoming national parliament elections is a testament to this viewpoint.
However, the complexity of the situation deepens when considering the timing and nature of these decisions, particularly against the backdrop of the US’s endorsement of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). This alignment with the BNP raises questions about the true intentions of the US in the region. The juxtaposition of supporting a party with such extreme Islamist ideologies while simultaneously advocating democratic processes presents a paradox that is hard to ignore.
Adding to this intricate geopolitical puzzle is the recent implementation of US visa restrictions targeting individuals in Bangladesh suspected of undermining the democratic process. Announced in May 2023, this policy allows the US to impose visa bans on a wide range of Bangladeshi nationals, including current and former government officials, members of political parties, and individuals in law enforcement, judiciary, and security services. This move could also be interpreted as a strategic gambit to exert influence over the election outcome.
The question that emerges from this scenario is whether the US is genuinely invested in safeguarding democracy in Bangladesh or if there are other, more interventionist motives at play. Is the US’s involvement a sign of genuine concern for the democratic process, or is it a strategic ploy to shape the political landscape of Bangladesh in favor of certain factions? The answers to these questions are not straightforward and require a nuanced understanding of the complex interplay of international relations, regional politics, and the historical context of US foreign policy.
As Bangladesh prepares for its pivotal elections, the presence and activities of US observers are set to be a focal point of international attention. The scrutiny will not just be on their observational role but also on the broader implications of their presence. Questions linger about the real intentions behind this deployment, especially in light of the complex political landscape of Bangladesh. The Biden administration, therefore, faces the task of demystifying its foreign policy objectives in Bangladesh.
The US’s policy moves, including visa restrictions and the endorsement of certain political factions, add layers of complexity to its role in Bangladesh. These actions, while possibly intended to promote democratic integrity, could be perceived as meddling in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation.
The unfolding scenario in Bangladesh, influenced in part by the US’s recent policy decisions, presents a conundrum. The apparent support for a party that is declared as an “undesignated tier-3 terror outfit by the US court“, coupled with a pronounced interest in the electoral process, sketches a foreign policy approach that is, at best, mysterious and, at worst, potentially disruptive.
