Ecuador recently faced a significant dilemma as it voted to leave the oil reserves in the Yasuní National Park untouched while simultaneously holding presidential elections. The vote in favor of preserving the Yasuní rainforest’s oil reserves, often referred to as “unearthed”, marked a victory for environmental activists. However, this decision creates a substantial economic challenge for the nation as it means the state-run oil company, Petroecuador, can no longer exploit these reserves, resulting in an estimated annual revenue loss of US$600 million.
The two presidential candidates advancing to the run-off election, scheduled for October 15, have both supported extractive industries like metallic mining and the oil sector in the past, key components of Ecuador’s economy.
The frontrunner, Luisa González, a left-wing populist supported by former president Rafael Correa, secured more than 34 percent of the vote in the first round. The surprise second-place finisher, Daniel Noboa, a right-wing businessman, garnered 23 percent support after delivering a strong performance in the final electoral debate.
The concept of leaving oil reserves in Yasuní untouched originated in 2006 and gained traction in Ecuador due to the park’s immense biodiversity and the presence of isolated Indigenous communities. Initially, the proposal aimed to keep the reserves underground in exchange for US$3 billion in compensation from major economies responsible for greenhouse gas emissions. However, the government shifted its approach to promoting carbon credit markets in exchange for oil conservation.
In 2013, the government, under President Rafael Correa, granted Petroecuador drilling rights in Yasuní’s Ishpingo, Tambococha, Tiputini (ITT) oil fields, located on the park’s eastern edge. This move generated US$148 million annually for the state while environmental activists, Indigenous groups, and NGOs mobilized to collect signatures for a public referendum on oil exploitation in Yasuní.
In May 2023, Ecuador’s constitutional court recognized the right to hold a referendum. The outcome, a resounding 17-point victory for preserving Yasuní’s oil reserves, now presents a significant challenge for the incoming president.
Despite these environmental triumphs, Ecuador faces serious challenges on multiple fronts. Under the previous president, Guillermo Lasso, the country experienced a significant rise in violence, increasing from 5.8 to 26.7 homicides per 100,000 people. If this trend continues, Ecuador could become the most violent country in South America by the end of 2023.
Factors contributing to this violence include shifts in drug trafficking routes, changes in the cocaine market, and a growing role for Ecuador as a distribution center.
Additionally, the political landscape has been marred by violence, including the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, an investigative journalist and opponent of drug trafficking leaders. His murder shifted the electoral dynamics, propelling Daniel Noboa to second place.
Both presidential candidates, Luisa González and Daniel Noboa, have previously supported extractive industries, which contribute significantly to Ecuador’s economy. However, the country’s new leader will need to navigate a complex set of challenges, including implementing the Yasuní agreement, addressing ongoing environmental damage from previous oil exploitation, and managing an economy in crisis with a limited timeframe.
Despite these challenges, Ecuador’s commitment to preserving its natural resources and its pioneering constitution emphasizing the rights of nature presents an opportunity for meaningful change. By joining forces with other Amazon nations in their efforts to protect the environment, Ecuador could send a powerful message to the world about the possibility of leaving fossil fuels in the ground while promoting sustainable alternatives.
