The heat of February was only a glimpse. The mercury may rise further in the coming months. The Meteorological Department has said in its forecast that from March to May, the minimum and maximum temperatures may be above normal in most parts of East, North East, Central and Northwest India.
The department said that only the southern peninsula is likely to have normal or below normal minimum and maximum temperatures during March to May. In March also, the minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal in most parts of the country except the southern peninsula.
According to the Meteorological Department, the maximum average temperature in the country in February this year was the highest since 1901. The minimum average temperature during this period was also the fifth highest since 1901.
The department has said that in February, the second highest average minimum temperature was recorded in northwest India after 1901. East India witnessed the third highest maximum temperature since 1901 and the fifth highest in all of India.
SC Bhan, head of the Agricultural Meteorology and Hydrology Service in the Meteorological Department, said, ‘The heat of the sun in February increased due to climate change or there was some other reason, it should be investigated closely. But according to the information we have received, the Ministry of Agriculture is taking all necessary precautions.
The yield of standing crop of wheat may be less
Experts said the sharp rise in temperature could reduce the yield of the standing wheat crop. This is especially likely to be seen in Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, where sowing has been delayed and the ears are now getting grainy.
Due to high heat during March to May, the demand for electricity can also increase. Due to this, there is a possibility of increasing inflation, in which a slight decrease has already started. High heat and dry winds are considered harmful for wheat at the time the ears begin to fill.
The good thing for North and Central India is that according to the Meteorological Department, the chances of heat wave in March are very less. It has been said in the forecast that there is a possibility of heat wave from April this year.
The department also said that due to uneven rainfall for the next three months, the temperature will be above normal in most parts of the country.
Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda, said, “Inflation will definitely increase due to rising temperature.” And the market feels that due to less stock of wheat, the government cannot interfere much in the market, till then the prices of wheat will remain high.
Rahul Chauhan, commodity analyst at iGrain, said wheat crop is already facing problems in some areas due to high heat in February. That is why the state governments are advising the farmers to adopt preventive measures immediately. He said, “If the heat continues to increase like this, there will be a crisis in the standing wheat crop in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar as well.”
The Center has said in its latest estimate that a record production of 112.2 million tonnes of wheat is expected this year, which is 4.12 per cent higher than last year due to increase in the area sown.
Similarly, production of gram is estimated to increase by 0.66 percent to 13.6 million tonnes and mustard production is estimated to increase by 7.11 percent to 12.8 million tonnes.
