The total amount of housing loans in Russia in 2023 may exceed 5 trillion rubles. This was announced on Tuesday, February 14, by Anatoly Pechatnikov, Deputy President and Chairman of the Board of VTB.
“Against the background of restrictions on subsidized programs of developers, there may be a decrease in the share of new buildings in the issuance, while at least a quarter of the demand for private construction will increase,” he said during a press briefing.
Pechatnikov named the main factors that will influence the market during the year. Among them are the extension of state mortgage programs, as well as the indexation of maternity capital (since February 1, it has grown by almost 12% – to 587 thousand rubles for the first child and 775.6 thousand for the second).
Experts believe that about 60-65% of all mortgage transactions will be made in the secondary housing segment. At the same time, its development depends on price parameters for market programs. At the last meeting, the regulator left the key rate unchanged. Due to this, most likely, the cost of the mortgage for the consumer will remain the same. Meanwhile, the demand in the primary market will determine the position of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on subsidized programs from developers.
In addition, it is expected that interest in private households among Russians in 2023 will be strengthened. In a favorable macroeconomic situation, this will lead to an increase in the volume of mortgages issued for individual housing construction under state programs.
“According to our forecasts, in general, the issuance market may increase by 25-50%, although its volume will still be relatively small – 170-200 billion rubles,” summed up VTB Deputy Chairman.
Earlier, on February 11, Natalia Kuznetsova, general director of NDV Supermarket Real Estate, told Izvestia that preferential mortgages led to an increase in demand for small-format apartments – studios and one-room apartments. At the end of 2022, the share of mortgage transactions in the mass segment was 77.8%, which is 13.4% more than in 2021.
