In the winter of 2024, Europe may face a shortage of gas and rising gas prices. This forecast was published on website European Commission (EC) on Monday 13 February.
“Domestic demand for gas may be higher than forecast. In the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions, the possibility of a shortage cannot be ruled out,” the report says.
Drawing conclusions on the basis of futures contracts currently concluded in the European Union (EU), the authors of the report note that TTF gas prices will remain within the range of €55-70 per MWh (that is, approximately €569-724 per 1,000 cubic meters). cubic meters) until the end of 2024. At the same time, it is noted that in the winter of 2024, an increase in prices for blue fuel in the EU is also possible. According to them, this is largely due to the increase in European purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
“In an environment of high volatility, a surge in gas prices similar to the one that occurred in 2022 cannot be ruled out, especially now that LNG imports have become the main source of natural gas for the European Union,” the EC report says.
According to the authors of the report, the risks of inflation are still largely associated with changes in the energy markets.
It is also noted that this forecast was made on the basis of a technical assumption that “the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will not intensify, but will continue throughout the forecast horizon.”
Earlier, on February 8, Russian Ambassador to Berlin Sergey Nechaev said that after the suspension of gas supplies from Russia to the EU, the prices for blue fuel in Germany reached record levels – over €350 per MWh. He noted that in order to avoid shortages and rolling blackouts, an emergency action plan had to be introduced in Germany, the task was set to reduce gas consumption by 20%, which led to the shutdown of its supply to a number of industrial enterprises.
Prior to this, on February 2, Ken Koyama, an expert from the Japanese publication Nihon Keizai, expressed the opinion that it would be difficult for European states in 2023 to provide themselves with the necessary gas reserves without supplies from the Russian Federation. According to him, despite the fact that the cost of energy in the eurozone has stabilized somewhat, the refusal of Russian exports could make filling fuel storage facilities ahead of winter an extremely difficult task.
He noted that if economic relations with Moscow are not restored, it is likely that fierce competition will arise between consumer countries for the supply of liquefied gas. At the same time, resource prices may rise again, as well as drag oil quotes along with them.
Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said on January 31 that Europe would have to reduce its gas consumption if it wants to avoid problems next winter. He also stressed the need to increase capacity for renewable energy sources.
Western countries decided to reduce their dependence on Russian energy resources against the backdrop of a special operation to protect the Donbass, the beginning of which was announced on February 24. Ultimately, this desire provoked a serious energy crisis in the European region.
