Riyadh calls for a return to negotiations with its main rival in the region – Iran – to restore the nuclear deal. Saudi Arabia made it clear that otherwise “this could threaten stability in the region.” Meanwhile, the kingdom’s main strategic partner in the Middle East, Washington, is losing interest in an agreement with the Islamic Republic. How strongly the views of the Saudis contradict the approaches of the White House and why Riyadh decided to change its policy towards Tehran – Izvestia investigated.

In support of the nuclear deal

“We need to get back to negotiations. [по «ядерной сделке с Ираном»]but a holistic approach is needed. We believe that we should take part in any future discussions. The states of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf, which are most threatened by a nuclear Iran, should participate in these negotiations. We are concerned that discussions about returning to the JCPOA [Совместному всеобъемлющему плану действий 2015 года] have virtually ceased, and this is a huge risk of regional instability,” declared Faisal bin Farhan, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom, at the Munich Security Conference.

The head of the Saudi Arabian Foreign Ministry noted that the proliferation of nuclear weapons is unprofitable for the Middle East region. “We support efforts to free the Middle East region from nuclear weapons,” explained he, adding that “Iran can step up nuclear development.”

Faisal bin Farhan came after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant, who said his country “has put all possible means on the negotiating table” to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. What specific measures are in question, the head of the defense department did not specify.

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan

Photo: REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani

“The international community must create an effective alternative to the dying [оружейному] the embargo is a practical mechanism for deterrence and consequences,” he said. According to Yoav Galant, Tehran, despite the sanctions, “expands the distribution of advanced weapons beyond the region.”

In a deep cul-de-sac

After the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal under Donald Trump in 2018 and returned to the policy of sanctions against Tehran, the Iranian authorities began to gradually move away from the commitments made under the JCPOA.

The Joseph Biden administration wanted to get back to the nuclear deal. As a result, indirect consultations began between Tehran and Washington through the mediation of other countries that signed the JCPOA. It seemed that the parties were close to compromise and reaching agreements. However, subsequently the negotiations began to stall, and then completely stalled. The parties could not agree on the lifting of sanctions against Iran.

Western countries accuse Iran of “making unreasonable demands.” In turn, Tehran is confident that no breakthrough is expected in the near future, and continue to develop its nuclear program.

Nuclear power plant reactor building in Iran

Photo: Getty Images/Handout

In the past year, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly published reports criticizing Iran. In response, Tehran started enriching uranium up to 60% at the nuclear facility in Fordow, as well as creating new centrifugal cascades at it and at the nuclear facility in Natanz and launching new centrifuges there.

In early February, the IAEA notified that “activities at the Iranian nuclear facility in Fordow are contrary to the obligations assumed by Tehran.” The agency believes that Iran is moving along a trajectory that could lead to the acquisition of nuclear weapons.

“IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi is concerned that Iran has made significant changes to information about the design of the fuel enrichment plant at Fordow in relation to the production of highly enriched uranium without prior notice to the agency,” the IAEA said in a report. Iran claims the report is based on outdated information.

“One of the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency erroneously informed about the alleged changes made by Iran without prior notice to the production procedure at the fuel enrichment plant in Fordow. Other inspectors were present on the spot, and after the explanations they provided, the said inspector admitted his mistake. The problem has been resolved in agreement with the IAEA secretariat,” Behruz Kamalvandi, official representative of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, retorted.

The second stage of construction of a nuclear power plant in the Iranian city of Bushehr

Photo: Global Look Press/Ahmad Halabisaz

At present, the dialogue between Iran and other JCPOA participants goes mainly through Qatar.

Changing positions

If earlier Riyadh relied on sanctions and pressure on Tehran, hoping in this way to reduce Iran’s activity in the region, then recently it has changed its position on the JCPOA.

However, Riyadh’s call runs counter to the approach of the Joseph Biden administration. The United States periodically demonstrates a loss of interest in the Iranian nuclear deal. Instead of trying to bring positions closer, the White House is introducing new sanctions against Tehran. “At the moment, our attention is not focused on her [ядерной сделке]. The Iranians destroyed the ability to quickly return to full compliance with the nuclear deal in September 2022 when they turned their backs on it,” Deputy State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said in early February.

Last week, State Department spokesman Ned Price confirmed that restoring the nuclear deal was not a foreign policy priority for Washington. “The JCPOA has not been in the center of our attention for several months,” explained He.

It’s better to negotiate

The change in Riyadh’s approach is also connected with a change in the policy of Washington itself, notes Andrei Ontikov, an orientalist and publicist, in an interview with Izvestia.

Photo: TASS/EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH

– Under Trump, the course was extremely anti-Iranian (withdrawal from the deal, sanctions, etc.) and very pro-Saudi. With the advent of the Democrats, led by Biden, to the White House, the US Middle East agenda in the Persian Gulf region has undergone major changes. This is not surprising, because democratic governments have traditionally relied on the Muslim Brotherhood (recognized as terrorist in the Russian Federation), and this is an organization that is considered terrorist in Saudi Arabia. With the advent of Biden, the kingdom realized that there would be no politics, as under Trump, and they made an attempt to resolve conflicts with neighbors in the region: Qatar, Turkey, close contacts began on Iranian territory with Iran, the political scientist noted.

According to him, contacts between Riyadh and Tehran continue and are likely to lead to a constructive dialogue between the countries, despite all the religious contradictions and the complex of existing problems.

“Besides, it is beneficial for the Saudis to improve relations with Iran, since they need to somehow resolve the Yemeni problem, which is pumping a lot of money out of them, but this does not lead to any positive results. And in Yemen, Iran indirectly played a big role by inflicting painful blows on Saudi Arabia. Rapprochement between countries is in the interests of both. If earlier there was an idea that Iran could be crushed with the help of a conditional coalition led by the United States, now this is not the case, the specialist explained.

Andrey Ontikov added that given the suspension of negotiations on the JCPOA for Saudi Arabia, the situation is not going well.

Photo: Global Look Press/Irgc Official Webiste

– On the one hand, the Saudis are negotiating with Tehran, on the other hand, the risk of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons is increasing. If we imagine that Tehran receives technology and theoretically can create a nuclear bomb, it is clear that Israel will be very dissatisfied. But Saudi Arabia will then be in a very difficult position. In this case, it remains only to acquire its own nuclear weapons. In principle, the Saudis can do it, they periodically talk about it,” the expert explained.

At the end of December 2021, American intelligence, citing satellite images, accused Saudi Arabia of developing its own ballistic missiles with the help of China. According to the United States, test launches of missiles took place at a facility near the city of Dawadmi. Experts confirmed that “this is the first unequivocal evidence that the enterprise has created the production of ballistic missiles.”

“Israel already has nuclear weapons, Iran can build them, Saudi Arabia can get them. And then, instead of creating a zone free of nuclear weapons in the Middle East, we get a zone pumped up with nuclear weapons. And given the level of tension between Israel and Iran, and Tehran and Riyadh, the situation is explosive. In addition, the Saudis understand that any escalation with Iran threatens their own security. They gradually began to realize that it would be better to come to an agreement with Tehran, to delimit spheres of interest, to smooth out the most acute contradictions and to live within the framework of this construction, Ontikov believes.

In his opinion, the big question is whether Saudi Arabia will change its course if Donald Trump or a politician like him returns to power in the United States.

The Saudis are not satisfied with the new course of the United States on the Middle East and North Africa, in particular on Iran. They do not consider this policy to be allied or pro-Riyadh. The kingdom begins to play in its own interests, trying to build bridges, to reach a settlement with those states that were previously hostile to it. Riyadh does it. In addition, the Saudis understand that if the number of countries with nuclear weapons increases in the Middle East, it can be used against Riyadh itself, the expert believes.

Armed Houthis in Yemen

Photo: TASS/EPA/YAHYA ARHAB

Opportunity to achieve your goals

Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya, a researcher at the Department of the Near and Post-Soviet East, INION RAS, shares a similar position.

— The call from Saudi Arabia to return to negotiations with Iran on a nuclear deal was made at the Munich conference after the words of Israel, which demanded that the international community prevent Tehran from implementing its nuclear program. Saudi Arabia is the main rival of the Islamic Republic, the Sunni kingdom with a pronounced Wahhabi doctrine is opposed by the Islamic Shiite republic. But, despite the existing proxy conflicts, in particular, in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and other contradictions between antagonist states, they are connected by geographical proximity, the expert noted.

The political scientist added that the countries are separated only by the Persian Gulf, one of the most important arteries of energy resources for the world oil markets.

– If the Israeli proposals for radical solutions regarding Iran are accepted, then this, without a doubt, will paralyze the Persian Gulf zone, which is dangerous for both Saudi Arabia and Iran. And in Riyadh they understand this very well, so Saudi Arabia, in contrast to Israel, which proposed to solve the “Iranian problem” in a radical way, proposes to return to diplomacy,” the specialist explained.

Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya added that several rounds of negotiations took place between the Islamic Republic and the kingdom through the special services.

Photo: Global Look Press/Sui Xiankai

– During this time there were no so-called “tanker wars” in the Persian Gulf zone. In addition, Tehran and Riyadh have stopped blaming each other directly. Also, Saudi Arabia is signaling that it is ready to restore diplomatic relations with Syria. The Kingdom is clearly revising its foreign policy, if not in the direction of softening, then certainly flexibility. The main resource of Riyadh is still money, the Arabist believes.

According to the political scientist, in the past few years there has been a clear deterioration in relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia, despite the fact that Riyadh remains Washington’s main strategic partner outside of NATO.

– Saudi Arabia does not like the position of the United States in the Persian Gulf, where they prefer to decide everything themselves – to control sub-regional political processes from a distance. Riyadh is striving to assert its own sovereignty in the Persian Gulf and later in the Middle East, so the permanent presence of the United States clearly interferes with the kingdom and causes discontent. Apparently, taking advantage of the beginning turbulence of the world order, Riyadh saw opportunities for itself to realize its short-term and medium-term goals in the region, the expert concluded.