A highly sensitive intelligence assessment has raised alarming concerns about a possible international conspiracy targeting Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, with a former insider of her political circle allegedly playing a key role in the plot.

According to information obtained from a highly-placed intelligence source, Mohammad Ali Arafat, widely known as M.A. Arafat and long considered a close associate of Sajeeb Wazed Joy, the only son of Sheikh Hasina, is suspected of maintaining contacts with foreign operatives who are allegedly seeking to eliminate the former Bangladeshi premier.

A trusted insider within Hasina’s circle

During Sheikh Hasina’s 17-year rule, Arafat enjoyed extraordinary access to power circles in Dhaka. He was widely described within Awami League circles as one of the closest confidants of Sajeeb Wazed Joy, who effectively operated a parallel influence network through two institutions — the Center for Research and Information (CRI) and the Suchinta Foundation.

According to several Awami League insiders, Arafat played a significant operational role within these organizations, which were often viewed as strategic communication hubs supporting the government.

Critics inside and outside the party had long alleged that the networks surrounding these institutions were also linked to favoritism, opaque financial dealings and influence-peddling. However, such allegations were rarely investigated publicly during the tenure of the Awami League government.

Sources familiar with the internal dynamics of the family say Sheikh Hasina often refrained from intervening in matters involving her son’s close associates.

Personal controversies surrounding Joy and Arafat

In Dhaka’s elite social circles, both Joy and Arafat have long been subjects of controversy. Joy’s divorce from his former wife Christine Overmeyer, with whom he has a daughter named Sofia, reportedly deepened his reliance on a close circle of friends, among whom Arafat was seen as particularly influential.

Several individuals familiar with the situation claim that Arafat used this period to strengthen his proximity to Joy and consolidate his own influence in the political communication apparatus linked to the Awami League leadership.

Investigative claims about foreign interference

The role of Arafat in alleged foreign influence operations was first publicly raised by Indian investigative journalist Chandan Nandy, who reported that several ministers in the final phase of the Hasina government may have been influenced by external actors.

According to Nandy’s reporting, some Awami League insiders believe attempts to destabilize the Hasina government may have begun as early as 2018, following the controversial national elections that returned her to power.

Other sources suggest that the pressure intensified during 2023, when repeated calls for “free and fair elections” were issued by officials of the United States government.

An intelligence report from an Indian agency dated June 2, 2022, reportedly suggested that diplomatic pressure on Dhaka formed part of a broader geopolitical effort aimed at forcing political change in Bangladesh.

Suspicious meetings in Washington

One particularly revealing episode reportedly occurred during Sheikh Hasina’s visit to the United States in April–May 2023, when she stayed at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Washington, DC.

According to a source familiar with the trip, a meeting was scheduled to discuss the launch of a new media platform intended to counter hostile narratives about the Bangladeshi government.

However, the plan reportedly collapsed after a separate meeting allegedly took place involving senior Awami League figure Salman F Rahman and former US ambassador Marcia Bernicat at another hotel in Washington.

Following that encounter, the proposed media project was abruptly abandoned, raising suspicions among some party insiders.

Alleged assassination plot after Hasina’s ouster

According to intelligence sources, the risks facing Sheikh Hasina may have escalated after she left Bangladesh and reportedly took refuge in New Delhi.

The source claims that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) may be attempting to exploit the political situation in Bangladesh to eliminate Hasina — partly as retaliation linked to historical grievances dating back to the war of independence of Bangladesh, where Hasina’s father Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman played the lead role.

The same source alleges that ISI operatives established contact with M.A. Arafat through an intermediary and offered financial incentives for assistance in gathering information related to Hasina’s location and security arrangements.

Surveillance and infiltration attempts

According to the intelligence source, Arafat is suspected of attempting to collect sensitive information regarding Sheikh Hasina’s movements in New Delhi and the communication channels she uses to remain in contact with her family and party leaders.

The source also alleges attempts to infiltrate individuals within the support staff of Hasina’s current residence in New Delhi.

In one particularly disturbing claim, the intelligence assessment suggests that operatives linked to the alleged plot may have explored the possibility of poisoning the former prime minister by compromising household personnel.

Indian security agencies have reportedly been alerted to these risks.

Digital surveillance concerns

The source further alleges that technical specialists may have attempted to track Sheikh Hasina’s communications by monitoring digital conversations involving her son Sajeeb Wazed Joy, including encrypted messaging platforms.

Such monitoring could potentially allow hostile actors to triangulate the location of the former prime minister.

Arafat’s current whereabouts unclear

M.A. Arafat has recently appeared in several television interviews broadcast from undisclosed locations, claiming to be speaking from “unknown” venues.

However, the intelligence source claims he may currently be moving between safe locations in the Middle East or another third country under a false identity, potentially under the protection of foreign intelligence networks.

A developing security concern

If the allegations prove credible, the case could represent one of the most serious assassination threats faced by a South Asian political leader in recent years.

Security officials in India and elsewhere are believed to be monitoring the situation closely.

For now, the full extent of the alleged conspiracy — and the role of individuals within Hasina’s former political circle — remains under investigation of this newspaper.

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