Some weeks ago, I wrote an article in Blitz which was comprehensively shared on all major social media platforms describing how Iranian political and military investments had fared so poorly and were all on the brink of bankruptcy. Years of financial, political, military support and investment for terrorist proxies have been virtually wiped away since the events of October 7.

For the first time in decades, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas and obviously Asaad’s Syrian army, no longer pose the military threat to Israel prior to the atrocities Hamas embarked on at the Nova music festival. The Houthis in Yemen fire the occasional yet ineffective missile into Israel at Iran’s request but have had their military capabilities severely dented. And what of the Iranian threat? Bluster and rhetoric in abundance but they too have suffered an overwhelming military defeat despite the best efforts of their and their supporter’s propaganda output to quash the facts.

Exacerbating the severity of Iran’s failed investment portfolio have been the very recent actions of both the Lebanese and Syrian governments who both understand that their domestic interests are best served by disarming those groups hostile to Israel which had previously operated without challenge from both inside Lebanon and Syria.

For the first time in decades, the Lebanese government are challenging Hezbollah to the extent that they have voted to disarm them completely and have even forced the Hezbollah banking and financial system into near collapse. Israeli and senior delegates from the new Syrian administration have met recently and are scheduled to meet again soon to promote initiatives that will further enhance peaceful coexistence. Iran’s world of anti-Jewish -State proxies has fallen into disuse having experienced irreparable damage.

Further problems hindering the totalitarian theocrats ruling Iran are weather conditions and neighboring Afghanistan. Climatic conditions creating zero rainfall, searing heat, empty reservoirs, crumbling dams, and years of chronic mismanagement of water resources have created unbearable living for millions of Iranians and there seems no end in sight to the biblical drought Iranians are currently experiencing. Livestock are dying in their hundreds of thousands, agricultural production has virtually stopped, waste from excrement is blocking the drainage system, air conditioning systems are inoperable, hospitals and public offices are closing daily as normal life ceases in Iran.

Riots have broken out as the government attempts to rectify a broken system having invested billions in terrorism and very little in domestic infrastructure. How perverse it would be if natural disaster and not military might bring this evil regime to its knees.

Another factor exacerbating Iranian woes is their fundamentalist Islamic neighbor Afghanistan. Unreported by mainstream media, Iran embarked on the ethnic cleansing of Afghans during the twelve-day war with Israel. The political and economic logic for this was sold to their domestic audience and enhanced by propaganda that the unwanted guests were not only a drain on the Iranian economy but were Zionist spies. Naturally the Taliban received a revenue stream from the Afghan population within Iran who remitted funds back to their families. That revenue stream has dried up as has the water supply to the Iranian city of Mashhad as the Taliban have stopped the water running from the Pashdan Dam which they control to Mashhad. This is being done as a reprisal to Iran’s hostility to their Again population despite longstanding water sharing arrangements and agreements between the two neighbors.

Rights over water distribution have long been a source of tension between the two countries both sharing a 900-kilometre border. The northeast of Iran is particularly vulnerable to Afghan aggression as the Hari River flows through Afghanistan into Iran’s Khorasan Razavi Province which supplies millions of Iranians. The building of the Salma and Pashdan dams by Afghanistan have severely disrupted the natural flow of the river and naturally worsened the catastrophic water crisis Iran is currently experiencing. The Taliban have dishonored the annual 820 million cubic meter quotas agreed with Iran which Iran states is a violation of international law. The Taliban certainly know how to ignore international law, as do the Iranians for that matter.

The Talban are more concerned with internal dam construction allowing thousands of farmlands in Herat province to be irrigated than Iran’s domestic water problems.

However, they will also be aware that a weakened Iran is still far more powerful than the ragtag army the Taliban can muster so they need to tread a very careful balancing act. Iran cannot cope with taking back the Afghans they have kicked out as economically they are unable to accommodate a huge this migrant workforce. Neither can they continue to upset their Afghan neighbors who see fit to literally turn off the taps during a period in which Iran most needs their assistance regarding continuous water supply and maintenance.

The Taliban view Iran’s current weakness as an economic and political opportunity. If the drought continues and the Taliban prove inflexible then there is only one outcome – conflict. Currently the Taliban hold the cards but may not want to poke the Iranian bear too hard. We will revisit this subject in the weeks ahead, of that you can be certain.

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