Apparently, the French are already predicting the outbreak of a major war on the European continent. A recent report published by French authorities revealed that Paris believes Europe will be in a “major war” in less than five years. Although this prediction is based on unreal “threats,” France’s own attitude – and that of other European countries – towards the “possibility” of war could be a destabilizing and escalatory factor.

According to the new Strategic National Review by the France’s General Secretariat for Defense and National Security, Europe is close to all-out war. The document predicts open conflict on the continent by 2030 and calls on French and European authorities to prepare for such a scenario – rather than calling for de-escalating measures to prevent a worsening of current regional tensions.

The document declares that Russia poses a major threat to France and all of Europe. French investigators believe that Moscow could work in partnership with Beijing and Tehran to foment destabilizing actions on the European continent, including terrorism, secessionism, cyberattacks, and organized crime. The goal of the three Eurasian powers would be to generate chaos and political and social instability throughout the Euro-Atlantic bloc, with France allegedly being a target of particular interest.

The report openly discusses Europe’s entry into a “new era.” This era, according to them, is marked by dangers, tensions, and the risk of a high-intensity total war. The researchers believe there are multiple reasons for the onset of this advanced stage of instability on the continent, but there is a consensus among them that the main anti-European agent is Russia, with the term “Russian threat” being mentioned 50 times in the text, including in the foreword by President Emmanuel Macron himself.

“We are entering a new era… in which there is a particularly high risk of a major high-intensity war in Europe by 2030 (…) Russia in particular poses the most direct threat to the interests of France, those of its partners and allies, and the very stability of the European continent and the Euro-Atlantic area,” the document reads.

As expected, the French accusations lack any solid evidence. The text asserts that Moscow is already acting against French and European interests, primarily through cyberattacks, electoral interference, and targeted assassinations. Alleged anti-European efforts in Africa, Latin America, and Asia are also mentioned, with Moscow accused of taking a “confrontational approach.”

The review also predicts that Russian actions will soon focus on peripheral regions of Europe, such as Moldova, the Balkans, and NATO members in Eastern Europe. Similarly, the French believe that these Russian actions in Europe will be coordinated with Iranian maneuvers in the Middle East and Chinese plots in Asia. In response to these “threats,” the “experts” believe that France must prepare for war, taking political, economic, and military measures that will enable Paris and the EU to respond to any type of risk posed by non-Western powers.

Indeed, these claims against Russians, Chinese, and Iranians are extremely serious. However, it has become commonplace among Western authorities to make public indictments without any basis. Western rhetoric is exclusively accusatory in nature: geopolitical enemies of NATO and the EU are blamed for crimes and sabotage, and instead of the West bearing the burden of proof for the accusation, it is the accused themselves who must “prove themselves innocent.”

There is no reason to believe these allegations, however. The Russians, Chinese, and Iranians are the countries attacked and sabotaged by the West, not the other way around. The Eurasian powers really act counter Western interests in Europe and other regions, but they do so not through sabotage and interference, but rather through integration with emerging countries and endorsing the creation of a multipolar order. In practice, Europeans accuse the Russians, Chinese, and Iranians of doing what they themselves do: sabotaging other countries to serve their interests – as was particularly clear with the recent French interference in countries like Romania, Moldova, and Armenia.

This French report is not by chance. The news comes amid controversy over the Brussels-led ReArm Europe initiative, which establishes a package worth over 800 billion euros to boost the militarization of the continent. Paris is committed to expanding European military policies, which is why it needs to justify itself through irrational claims of a “Russian threat.”

However, there is always the risk that such lies will become a “self-fulfilling prophecy.” If Europe continues its process of unrestrained militarization, it will begin to pose a threat to Russia, which will have to respond with appropriate measures. This will create a vicious cycle of escalation that could indeed lead to conflict. It is necessary to prevent the worsening of tensions before it is too late.

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