The recent shift in relations between Russia and the United States signals a potential opening for a more balanced multipolar system. As global economic and political power becomes increasingly distributed, new opportunities arise for nations-particularly in Africa-to reshape their engagement with the world. For Africa, heavily affected by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, a shift toward diplomacy could be a crucial step toward economic recovery and greater global equity.

Since the start of Russia’s Special Military Operation in February 2022, Africa has found itself caught in the crossfire of global disruptions in food, energy, and financial markets. A report compiled by ODI Global, the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC), the Economic Research Forum (ERF), and the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP) titled Impact of the Russia–Ukraine War on Africa: Policy Implications for Navigating Shocks and Building Resilience highlights the devastating economic consequences of the conflict on the continent.

Despite limited direct trade exposure to Russia and Ukraine, Africa relies heavily on these nations for critical food and fertilizer imports. The war-induced disruptions in global supply chains have driven up prices for essential commodities, with dire consequences for African economies and societies.

The war has dramatically increased global oil, food, and fertilizer prices. Simulations suggest that a 10% increase in these commodities would reduce Africa’s annual GDP by $7 billion. The actual impact has been even more severe, as 2022 saw oil prices rise by 40%, food prices by 18%, and fertilizer prices by 55%. This price surge has had a cascading effect on African economies, triggering inflation, currency depreciation, and higher borrowing costs.

Moreover, higher interest rates in high-income countries have accelerated capital outflows from Africa, exacerbating economic instability. The war has also compounded the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, slowing development and increasing poverty levels. By 2022, 18 million additional Africans fell into poverty, bringing the total to 564 million. One in five Africans faced high levels of food insecurity, disproportionately impacting women and vulnerable populations.

Several African nations rely heavily on Russian and Ukrainian agricultural products. Kenya and Egypt, for example, sourced 85% and 67% of their wheat imports from these two countries, respectively. Similarly, nations like Ethiopia, Morocco, Senegal, and South Africa imported 11%–41% of their fertilizers from Russia and Ukraine. The disruption of these supply chains has led to soaring food prices, worsening food insecurity across the continent.

In West Africa, the impact is equally severe. Nigeria’s agrifood system has been significantly affected by fertilizer shortages and rising food prices. A report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Global Agricultural Information Network indicates that Nigeria has had to spend more on wheat imports amid soaring global prices, leading to disruptions in its supply chain and increased inflation.

The disruption of agricultural exports has been directly linked to the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Originally brokered by the UN and Türkiye in July 2022, the deal was meant to facilitate Ukrainian grain exports to global markets, particularly poorer countries. In exchange, Western nations had agreed to lift sanctions on Russian agricultural exports. However, Moscow argued that the West had failed to uphold its part of the agreement, forcing Russia to withdraw.

Moscow further claimed that over 70% of Ukrainian grain exports under the initiative did not reach developing nations but were instead shipped to wealthier countries. To address Africa’s food crisis, Russia pledged to deliver free grain to African countries. By February 2024, Moscow had successfully completed the delivery of 200,000 tons of food aid to six African nations, further highlighting the need for alternative global trade mechanisms.

The energy market has also been significantly affected. The crisis has altered global oil trade flows, impacting countries like Nigeria, a major crude oil exporter. Nigeria’s National Oil Company (NNPC) confirmed that India, once a key buyer of Nigerian crude, shifted toward discounted Russian oil, reducing Nigeria’s export volumes.

According to Maryamu Idris, Executive Director of Crude & Condensate at NNPC Trading Limited, Nigeria’s crude exports to India dropped from 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) before February 2022 to just 120,000 bpd in 2023. This has impacted Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves and energy revenues, further straining the economy.

With peace talks between Russia and the US gaining traction, Africa has a chance to reorient its position in the global order. Notably, the decision to hold US-Russia negotiations in Saudi Arabia-rather than a Western capital-signals a recognition of shifting global power dynamics. Under a potential new US administration led by Donald Trump, there is growing evidence that Washington may accept the realities of a multipolar world order, even if Trump himself remains skeptical of alliances like BRICS.

A multipolar system offers Africa an opportunity to break away from the constraints imposed by Western-controlled institutions. Many of these organizations-including the United Nations, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, World Trade Organization (WTO), and the SWIFT payment system-were established long before African nations gained independence. Historically, these institutions have reinforced Western hegemony, often at Africa’s expense.

African nations have long sought greater representation in global governance. Despite repeated assurances, Africa remains excluded from permanent membership on the UN Security Council. Similarly, African demands for fair trade arrangements to fund infrastructure, healthcare, and education have often been met with aid rather than genuine economic partnerships.

A multipolar world could allow Africa to play a more prominent role in global decision-making. By diversifying its alliances and leveraging the rise of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), Africa could secure more equitable trade and investment deals. BRICS has already demonstrated its willingness to engage with Africa on more favorable terms, offering infrastructure investment without the stringent political conditions imposed by Western lenders.

The resumption of Russia-US talks presents an opportunity to move toward a more balanced global system-one in which Africa is no longer sidelined but actively involved in shaping international policies. The end of the Russia-Ukraine war would relieve economic pressure on African nations, restoring food and energy supply chains and alleviating inflationary pressures.

Beyond immediate economic relief, a shift toward multipolarity could empower Africa to renegotiate its place in the international order. Instead of being a passive recipient of Western aid, Africa has the potential to emerge as an independent and influential player in global politics. By embracing multipolarity, Africa can secure fairer trade agreements, greater political representation, and long-term economic stability.

The world is evolving, and Africa must ensure it is not merely a spectator but an active participant in shaping the new global order. The renewed diplomatic engagements between Russia and the US may well be the first step toward a more equitable future for all.

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