The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has reached unprecedented lows in recent years, driven by escalating security concerns, diplomatic deadlocks, and the looming threat of militancy. The latest development in this fraught history occurred in early 2025, when Pakistan’s Air Force launched a series of airstrikes on Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts in the volatile border regions between the two nations. This military operation, executed as a reprisal for a fatal TTP attack on Pakistani forces, has intensified tensions that have been building for decades. This article examines three critical factors that have contributed to the deterioration of relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan: the cross-border nature of the insurgency, Pakistan’s military response, and the broader geopolitical consequences of their strained relationship.

The Cross-Border Insurgency: A Perpetual Thorn

The primary source of tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan stems from the porous and frequently lawless border areas they share. This 2,600-kilometre-long frontier, characterised by ethnic complexities and fragmented political control, has long served as a sanctuary for militant groups, notably the TTP. The TTP, an extremist organisation based in Pakistan that emerged in 2007, has operated unchecked within Afghanistan’s border regions, carrying out deadly assaults on Pakistani military personnel and civilians.

While the Afghan Taliban initially permitted the TTP to establish safe havens in Afghanistan following their return to power in Kabul in 2021, they have become increasingly reluctant to restrain the group’s activities. For Pakistan, this has created a strategic dilemma. Islamabad views the TTP as a direct threat to its national security, with operatives now operating freely in the tribal regions and beyond. Pakistani officials estimate that the TTP has approximately 6,000 fighters, and their sustained presence in Afghanistan has contributed to rising cross-border violence. In 2023, Pakistan experienced one of its deadliest years, with over 650 attacks—most of which were attributed to the TTP and allied insurgent factions. The TTP’s claim of responsibility for the deaths of 16 Pakistani soldiers in a 2024 attack in South Waziristan, one of the deadliest assaults on Pakistani forces in recent years, highlighted the group’s expanding influence and increasing lethality.

The situation is further complicated by the Afghan Taliban’s unwillingness to collaborate with Islamabad in addressing the insurgency. Although the Taliban has pledged not to permit Afghan territory to be used for attacks on other countries, the situation on the ground indicates a different reality. Pakistan’s frustration with Afghanistan’s inability to curb the TTP has led Islamabad to adopt a more assertive approach, while Kabul’s Taliban government continues to deny any involvement in sheltering militants. Consequently, the TTP’s cross-border operations remain a central factor in the ongoing rift, with both nations trapped in a relentless cycle of mutual accusations and recriminations.

Pakistan’s Military Response: A Double-Edged Sword

In reaction to the escalating threat posed by the TTP and other insurgent groups, Pakistan has increasingly relied on military operations, including airstrikes, to dismantle terrorist hideouts in Afghanistan. The most recent airstrike in early 2025, carried out by six Pakistani fighter jets, targeted TTP strongholds in South Waziristan and surrounding areas. These strikes led to the deaths of between 12 and 15 TTP militants, but they also triggered a diplomatic crisis between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s military operations in Afghanistan are viewed by some as an unavoidable reaction to the collapse of diplomatic attempts to secure Afghanistan’s cooperation in combating militancy. However, these operations are not without their repercussions. Civilian casualties in the border areas have emerged as a tragic and contentious consequence of such strikes, with reports indicating the deaths of women and children during a bombing in South Waziristan. This collateral damage has exacerbated anti-Pakistan sentiment within Afghanistan, further complicating the already delicate relationship between the two countries.

On the international front, Pakistan’s airstrikes have garnered mixed reactions. While Islamabad justifies these strikes as essential for safeguarding its national security and combating cross-border terrorism, the Afghan Taliban has vehemently condemned them, accusing Pakistan of infringing on Afghanistan’s sovereignty. The incursions by the Pakistan Air Force into Afghan territory have triggered diplomatic protests, with the Taliban government asserting that it is neither accountable for the TTP’s actions nor capable of fully controlling the border areas. Pakistan, in turn, argues that Afghanistan’s failure to address the TTP’s presence within its borders leaves Islamabad with no option but to resort to military action.

The increasing reliance on airstrikes as a counterterrorism strategy has placed Islamabad in a vulnerable position. While these actions may deliver short-term gains by eliminating prominent militants, they also have the potential to heighten tensions with Afghanistan and hinder any prospects for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The idea that “military power does not always translate to diplomatic power” is especially relevant in this context, as the airstrikes may achieve limited success in combating terrorism, but they are scarcely fostering long-term regional stability.

The Broader Geopolitical Implications: A Region on the Brink

The declining relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has wider geopolitical implications that extend beyond their bilateral relations. As neighbouring states with common security concerns, their mutual distrust and animosity have repercussions throughout the South Asian region. The United States and its allies, long engaged in the region’s geopolitics, have voiced concerns about the worsening security situation in Afghanistan and its subsequent impact on Pakistan.

The United States, for example, has played a pivotal role in both Pakistan’s counterterrorism initiatives and in the reconstruction of Afghanistan after 2001. However, with the Taliban’s resurgence and the subsequent rise in militancy, the U.S. now faces a challenging situation, forcing it to reassess its involvement with both countries. The worsening relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan heightens the prospect of further instability, particularly as Pakistan struggles to retain control over its volatile tribal areas, while Afghanistan’s Taliban government contends with internal difficulties and growing international isolation.

The broader geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the issue of Afghan refugees. Pakistan, which has hosted millions of Afghan refugees over the past several decades, recently initiated large-scale deportations, citing security concerns and economic pressures. In November 2023, Pakistan expelled more than 540,000 Afghan refugees, a decision that provoked strong condemnation from the Taliban government. The deportations have intensified the already strained diplomatic ties between Islamabad and Kabul. Afghan officials have urged Pakistan to demonstrate greater tolerance and compassion, emphasising the human rights consequences of forcibly returning refugees to a nation still embroiled in conflict.

These developments, combined with the persistent militancy and cross-border violence, have placed the region in a precarious situation. The geopolitical uncertainty regarding the future of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations is evident, with both nations on high alert and the international community unsure of how to proceed. As the geopolitical landscape evolves, the ramifications of this fractured relationship extend beyond South Asia, impacting the broader international order.

The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has reached a standstill, shaped by the intersection of cross-border insurgency, military intervention, and intricate diplomatic challenges. As long as the TTP continues to operate unchecked in Afghanistan’s border regions, Pakistan is likely to feel forced into military action, despite the growing risks of civilian casualties and diplomatic repercussions. This harsh reality places both countries at a critical juncture—where the pursuit of security and sovereignty often conflicts with the quest for peace and stability. In this high-stakes environment, the way forward is fraught with difficulties. Diplomatic engagement is crucial to resolving the crisis, but it requires mutual trust and a willingness to collaborate. Until then, the geopolitical tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan will remain unresolved, with both nations trapped in a cycle of retaliation and political brinkmanship. Only time will determine whether a resolution can be achieved or whether the region will face further instability.

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