Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), one of the West’s oldest and most storied political forces, has long stood as a pillar of social democracy. From its opposition to Nazism to its role in rebuilding postwar Germany, the SPD has historically been at the forefront of progressive labor, economic, and human rights reforms. Under the leadership of figures like Willy Brandt, whose “Ostpolitik” laid the groundwork for German reunification, the party helped shape the modern German state. However, the results of Germany’s recent federal election paint a starkly different picture of the SPD’s standing today.

Winning only 16.4 percent of the vote, the party has been eclipsed by both the conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). This precipitous decline raises urgent questions about the future of social democracy, not only in Germany but across the Western world. How did the SPD reach this point, and what does its electoral collapse suggest about the broader trajectory of left-wing politics?

The SPD’s decline did not begin overnight. While the party enjoyed strong support in the late 20th century, winning nearly 41 percent of the vote in 1998, its grip on the electorate has weakened significantly since the early 2000s. The seeds of this downturn were sown during the tenure of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, whose “Agenda 2010” and “Hartz” labor market reforms alienated much of the party’s working-class base.

Schröder’s economic policies-aimed at reducing unemployment by liberalizing labor laws and cutting social welfare programs-were rooted in neoliberal orthodoxy, but they fractured the party’s traditional alliance with trade unions and working-class voters. The reforms also prompted Oskar Lafontaine, a former SPD leader and popular finance minister, to defect and form a left-wing political alliance that later became Die Linke. This defection further drained SPD support and split Germany’s left-wing vote.

Despite its declining popularity, the SPD managed to stay in power as the junior partner in a coalition with the CDU/CSU under Chancellor Angela Merkel. When Merkel retired in 2021, the SPD briefly rebounded, winning 25.7 percent of the vote under Olaf Scholz and forming a coalition government with the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP). Yet, this coalition-dubbed the “traffic-light coalition” due to the parties’ colors-was fraught with ideological contradictions that made effective governance nearly impossible.

Several factors contributed to the SPD’s abysmal showing in the latest election. Chief among them was its failure to recognize and address voters’ key concerns, particularly regarding immigration and economic security.

One of the most pressing issues for German voters was immigration. According to a recent survey, 37 percent of Germans view migration as the most important challenge facing the country. The SPD has struggled to formulate a coherent position on the issue, oscillating between support for Merkel’s 2015 “open-door policy” and calls for stricter deportation measures following terrorist attacks. This ambivalence has allowed the anti-immigration AfD to capitalize on public discontent, particularly in Germany’s economically struggling eastern regions, where many feel left behind by globalization.

Economic concerns also played a decisive role in the SPD’s defeat. With Germany’s economy contracting for a second consecutive year in 2024, rising unemployment, and declining consumer confidence, Scholz’s government has failed to restore faith in the SPD’s ability to manage economic affairs. The party’s efforts to balance progressive social policies with the pro-business orientation of its FDP coalition partners created contradictions that alienated both traditional working-class supporters and centrist voters.

According to exit polls by Infratest dimap, the AfD won 38 percent of working-class votes, compared to just 12 percent for the SPD. This result is strikingly similar to what happened in the United States during the 2024 presidential election, when large segments of the working-class electorate abandoned the Democratic Party in favor of Donald Trump. In both cases, the left’s failure to address economic dislocation and deindustrialization created fertile ground for right-wing populist parties to exploit working-class anxieties.

Germany’s response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was another area where the SPD fell short. Scholz’s much-heralded “Zeitenwende” (turning point) in German defense and foreign policy has largely failed to materialize. Germany barely meets NATO’s 2 percent defense spending target, and its military support for Ukraine has been inconsistent. This indecisiveness has eroded Scholz’s credibility and reinforced the perception that Germany lacks strong leadership on the global stage.

The SPD’s struggles mirror the difficulties faced by center-left parties across the Western world. In the United States, the Democratic Party’s loss in the 2024 presidential election was driven by similar factors: failure to address immigration concerns, alienation of working-class voters, and an overemphasis on cultural liberalism at the expense of economic populism.

This pattern has repeated itself in other countries as well. In France, the Socialist Party has been virtually erased from the political landscape, overshadowed by both President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition and the rising far-right National Rally led by Marine Le Pen. In Britain, the Labour Party has faced its own struggles, though it has recently made gains due to deep dissatisfaction with the ruling Conservative Party.

The central challenge for social democratic parties in the West is that their traditional working-class base has been hollowed out by globalization, automation, and economic restructuring. While these parties continue to champion progressive social issues, they have often failed to craft a compelling economic vision that resonates with those left behind by rapid economic changes. As a result, many disaffected voters have turned to right-wing populist parties that promise to restore national sovereignty and protect jobs.

If center-left parties like the SPD wish to remain politically relevant, they must undertake serious introspection and policy recalibration. Merely doubling down on cultural liberalism and identity politics while ignoring economic anxiety will not be enough. Instead, they must:

Rebuild Trust with Workers – This means crafting policies that protect jobs, strengthen labor rights, and address income inequality without embracing neoliberal economic dogma.

Develop a Coherent Immigration Policy – Social democrats must balance humanitarian responsibilities with policies that address public concerns about integration and economic competition.

Strengthen Economic Sovereignty – Rather than blindly championing globalization, they must find ways to protect key industries, invest in domestic manufacturing, and ensure economic security for all citizens.

Assert Leadership on Security and Foreign Policy – Clear and decisive positions on defense and national security are necessary to counteract perceptions of weakness.

The SPD’s electoral collapse serves as a warning sign for the broader Western left. If social democrats fail to recognize and respond to the fears of their former working-class base, right-wing populist movements will continue to rise. To reverse this trend, center-left parties must return to their roots: fighting for economic justice, providing security in an uncertain world, and offering a bold vision for the future.

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