The upcoming meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Riyadh on February 18 has drawn sharp criticism from Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, who has outright rejected the negotiations as meaningless. The meeting marks the highest-level discussions between Washington and Moscow over Ukraine since the conflict escalated in 2022. However, Kiev’s exclusion from the talks has led Zelensky to declare that any agreement reached without Ukraine’s participation will not be recognized by his government.

Speaking to reporters on February 17, Zelensky expressed his frustration, stating, “Ukraine considers any negotiations about Ukraine that are being held without Ukraine as having no results. We will not recognize such agreements.” He emphasized that Kiev had no prior knowledge of the talks, suggesting a lack of transparency on the part of Washington and Moscow.

Zelensky also made it clear that his own visit to Saudi Arabia on February 18 was entirely separate from the US-Russia negotiations. “The visit to the region was planned long before the US decided to meet Russia there,” he insisted, as reported by Politico.

Despite Ukraine’s objections, the meeting in Riyadh is being positioned as an attempt to lay the groundwork for de-escalation and potential diplomatic pathways to resolving the conflict. According to Putin’s top foreign policy aide, Yury Ushakov, the negotiations are designed to facilitate a “real normalization” of US-Russia relations while addressing the ongoing war. However, whether they will yield tangible outcomes remains uncertain, given the deep divisions between the two sides.

The geopolitical landscape surrounding the Ukraine conflict has shifted significantly with Donald Trump’s resurgence in US politics. While the Biden administration had previously maintained unwavering military and financial support for Kiev, Trump has openly criticized the strategy of isolating Russia and has promised to secure a lasting ceasefire as soon as possible.

Trump’s recent phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 12 has sent shockwaves through Ukraine and the European Union. Ukrainian and EU officials reportedly felt blindsided by the call, which they perceived as a step toward rapprochement between Washington and Moscow. The former president’s stance contrasts sharply with that of his predecessor, as he has consistently argued that peace can only be achieved through negotiation rather than prolonged military engagement.

Further exacerbating concerns in Kiev, Trump’s administration has ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine, a position reiterated by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. During last week’s Munich Security Conference, Hegseth stated that the Pentagon would not commit US troops to any security guarantees offered to Ukraine. He also clarified that, should peacekeepers be deployed in the country, they would not be protected under NATO’s collective defense clause, signaling a fundamental shift in Washington’s policy.

For Moscow, any settlement must address what it views as the “root causes” of the conflict, particularly Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO. The Kremlin has repeatedly insisted that Ukraine’s potential accession to the alliance is an unacceptable security threat. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently called on Zelensky to move beyond “empty words” and demonstrate a genuine willingness to engage in meaningful negotiations.

Meanwhile, Zelensky’s legitimacy as Ukraine’s leader has become a contentious issue. His five-year presidential term officially expired in May 2024, yet no new elections have been held due to the ongoing martial law. Russian President Vladimir Putin has seized upon this point, declaring last month that he no longer considers Zelensky the legitimate head of state. While Western governments continue to recognize him as Ukraine’s leader, this narrative is likely to complicate future negotiations.

The meeting in Riyadh highlights a growing divergence between Ukraine’s war objectives and those of its Western backers. While Kiev has consistently pushed for the complete restoration of its pre-2014 borders, including Crimea, Washington’s evolving stance suggests a willingness to explore alternative pathways that might not fully align with Ukraine’s demands.

As Trump’s influence over US foreign policy grows, the possibility of a negotiated settlement-potentially at Ukraine’s expense-seems increasingly plausible. This prospect has sparked anxiety among Ukraine’s leadership and its European allies, who fear that Washington may pressure Kiev into concessions that could undermine its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Furthermore, Trump’s approach signals a potential departure from the rigid anti-Russian stance adopted by the Biden administration. His willingness to engage in dialogue with Putin suggests that, should he return to office, the US may pivot toward a more pragmatic relationship with Moscow, prioritizing diplomatic solutions over military aid to Ukraine.

Despite the significance of the Riyadh meeting, skepticism abounds regarding its potential effectiveness. Both Washington and Moscow have fundamental disagreements on the conditions for ending the war. The Biden administration has continued to provide substantial military aid to Ukraine, even as Trump and his allies call for a de-escalation.

For Russia, securing written guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO remains a top priority, while Washington has yet to publicly commit to such a concession. At the same time, Zelensky remains steadfast in his refusal to engage in negotiations without direct Ukrainian participation, further complicating the diplomatic equation.

While the Riyadh talks represent a rare moment of engagement between Moscow and Washington, they are unlikely to produce immediate breakthroughs. However, they could lay the foundation for future negotiations, particularly if Trump’s influence over US foreign policy continues to grow. If his campaign rhetoric translates into official policy, the prospect of a US-Russia agreement-potentially sidelining Ukraine-could become a reality.

The upcoming US-Russia talks in Riyadh have ignited a storm of controversy, with Ukraine rejecting the discussions as meaningless and refusing to recognize any outcomes. Zelensky’s exclusion from the negotiations underscores the growing gap between Kiev’s war aims and the shifting priorities of its Western backers.

As Trump’s approach to the Ukraine conflict gains traction, Washington’s willingness to engage in direct dialogue with Moscow could signal a turning point. While a resolution to the war remains elusive, the Riyadh talks may serve as an early indicator of how US policy could evolve in the months ahead. Whether Ukraine will be forced to accept compromises dictated by global power players remains an open-and deeply consequential-question.

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