When Bashar al-Assad lost control of Syria’s oil-rich eastern regions to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), he turned to Iran for oil supplies and financial support to sustain his regime. This reliance marked a critical moment in Syria’s descent into economic and political collapse. Assad’s government, already teetering on bankruptcy, faced the impossible task of funding a brutal war without reliable revenue streams. His solution was a dark turn: reliance on drug trafficking and terrorism as the regime’s most lucrative exports.

This assertion might sound like a hyperbolic attack on a weakened regime, but the Syrian government itself has been transparent about leveraging these illicit activities to navigate its geopolitical challenges. Even as international scrutiny mounted, Assad used the regime’s narcotics trade, particularly Captagon, as a bargaining chip in regional negotiations. This tactic laid bare the regime’s desperate measures to cling to power, with dire consequences for Syria and its neighbors.

Despite the reconciliation agreement between Syria and Saudi Arabia in May 2023, no Saudi ambassador took up residence in Damascus until recently. Diplomatic representation remained confined to the Four Seasons Hotel, and Riyadh’s reluctance to fully normalize relations stemmed from Assad’s failure to deliver on key promises. Chief among these was halting the smuggling of Captagon, a potent amphetamine that has flooded Gulf markets. Assad demanded financial compensation to curb the trade, a strategy reminiscent of Pablo Escobar’s extortion tactics.

Western estimates suggest that Captagon sales generate over $5 billion annually for Assad’s regime, surpassing Syria’s pre-war oil revenues. For Riyadh, rewarding such criminal behavior was unacceptable, as it risked setting a precedent for further exploitation. The stalled diplomatic progress highlighted the broader failure of Assad’s attempts to rehabilitate his international standing.

Assad’s personal demeanor has long puzzled those who interacted with him. Polite and composed in meetings, he projected a misleading image of rationality. I met Assad several times before the Syrian revolution, publishing our discussions in Asharq Al-Awsat. However, I ceased after his regime’s assassination campaign in Lebanon escalated, targeting journalists and critics. Despite the regime’s atrocities, Assad’s calm exterior left many questioning who truly wielded power. Was it his brother Maher, intelligence chief Ali Mamlouk, his wife Asma, or Iranian allies like Qassem Soleimani?

The truth is clear: Assad orchestrated and directed the regime’s oppressive machinery. His governance failures-rampant corruption, economic mismanagement, and reliance on brute force-plunged Syria into deeper poverty. Under his leadership, the country became a haven for terrorist organizations and drug traffickers, shattering any hopes for modernization or reform.

Assad’s ascent to power was initially met with cautious optimism. Many hoped he would steer Syria toward modernization, breaking free from his father Hafez al-Assad’s repressive legacy. Instead, Bashar expanded the security state, increased political assassinations, and fortified alliances with Iran and extremist groups. His failure to address Syria’s economic challenges laid the groundwork for widespread discontent.

The Syrian revolution, which erupted three months after Tunisia’s uprising, was not an anomaly. Years of economic stagnation, coupled with the regime’s heavy-handed repression, fueled the unrest. Rather than addressing citizens’ grievances, Assad doubled down on his alliance with Iran and relied on a shadow economy. This included facilitating armed groups during the Iraq war and later fostering an extensive drug trade to sustain his regime.

By the time the revolution began, Syria’s economy was in free fall. The government’s failure to address systemic issues-such as corruption, a bloated bureaucracy, and reliance on foreign aid-left the country vulnerable. The collapse of Syria’s currency, exacerbated by US Caesar Act sanctions and frozen state assets, deepened the crisis. This economic meltdown preceded the war and highlighted Assad’s inability to govern effectively.

Today, the average Syrian soldier earns around $20 a month, while university professors, once part of the societal elite, face similar destitution. These dire economic conditions underscore the regime’s failure to prioritize development over militarization. Instead of investing in infrastructure or improving citizens’ livelihoods, Assad funneled resources into his war machine and illicit enterprises.

The collapse of Assad’s regime offers a stark lesson: economic failure poses a greater threat to state stability than security challenges. Decades of mismanagement, coupled with the regime’s dependence on coercion and illicit activities, paved the way for Syria’s downfall. The war’s devastating toll-both human and financial-exposed the fragility of a state propped up by foreign aid and shadowy dealings.

Despite these hardships, Syrians have demonstrated remarkable resilience. In diaspora communities, they have excelled in various fields, showcasing the potential for rebuilding a post-Assad Syria. The current government, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, faces a monumental task: uniting Syria’s diverse population, restoring trust in state institutions, and opening the country to international investment.

To rebuild Syria, the new leadership must break free from the Assad regime’s legacy. This includes dismantling the shadow economy, rooting out corruption, and fostering economic development. International support will be crucial, but it hinges on genuine reform and accountability. The government must prioritize infrastructure projects, create jobs, and improve public services to rebuild trust among Syrians.

Additionally, addressing the refugee crisis requires a comprehensive approach. Providing safe conditions for returnees and integrating them into society will be key to fostering stability. Engaging with the international community to lift sanctions and attract investment will also play a critical role in Syria’s recovery.

Bashar al-Assad’s failures plunged Syria into one of the most devastating conflicts of the 21st century. His reliance on brute force, corruption, and illicit activities eroded the state’s foundations, leading to economic collapse and widespread suffering. The lessons from Syria’s collapse highlight the dangers of governance driven by self-interest and repression. Rebuilding the nation will require bold leadership, international cooperation, and a commitment to justice and reform. Only then can Syria chart a path toward stability and prosperity.

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