Germany’s regional elections in Brandenburg, following those in Thuringia and Saxony, have cast a spotlight on the deep divisions and underlying instability plaguing the country’s political landscape. While regional elections may once have been seen as isolated events, their significance now resonates across Germany, as they reflect larger national struggles. With Brandenburg marking the last of these three elections, the broader implications for Germany’s ruling coalition and its political future have become clear.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, narrowly retained its lead in Brandenburg, securing 30.9 percent of the vote, just ahead of the surging Alternative for Germany (AfD), which garnered 29.2 percent. Despite this technical win, the result is less a cause for celebration and more a stark reflection of the SPD’s decline. The once-dominant party is now clinging to power through a fragile coalition, saved, for now, by voters’ tactical decision to prevent the AfD from securing first place.

At the heart of the SPD’s woes is its embattled leader, Olaf Scholz. Scholz’s tenure as Chancellor has been marred by public dissatisfaction, economic stagnation, and an unpopular foreign policy that has seen Germany become increasingly embroiled in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Scholz’s leadership has catalyzed the party’s already faltering support base, turning what was once gradual erosion into a more rapid decline.

Had the SPD suffered another loss in Brandenburg, as it had in Thuringia and Saxony, it is likely that Scholz would have faced internal pressure to step down. A replacement was already waiting in the wings: Boris Pistorius, the current Minister of Defense. Pistorius, a staunch NATO advocate with a hardline stance against Russia, enjoys significantly higher popularity than Scholz. However, his ascent would signal a further shift to a more aggressive foreign policy, which could alienate parts of the SPD’s traditional voter base.

The AfD’s near-victory in Brandenburg is yet another sign of the party’s growing influence. What was once a fringe, far-right party has now cemented its place in the German political system. The AfD’s surge, particularly in eastern Germany, is driven by concerns over migration, economic hardship, and dissatisfaction with the mainstream parties.

Despite repeated efforts by Germany’s political establishment to marginalize the AfD-through media campaigns, protests, and legal challenges-the party’s influence has only grown. The political elite’s attempts to undermine the AfD have backfired, with voters increasingly viewing the party as the only real alternative to the status quo. The AfD’s resilience in the face of such opposition shows that it has become a permanent fixture in the German political landscape, one that cannot simply be ignored or wished away.

While the SPD’s narrow win in Brandenburg may have temporarily saved Scholz’s leadership, the election results underscore the broader crisis facing the ruling “traffic-light” coalition. The coalition, which includes the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP), is faltering. Both the Greens and the FDP were effectively wiped out in Brandenburg, continuing a trend from the earlier Thuringia and Saxony elections.

The Greens, once seen as a potential centrist force capable of replacing the SPD as Germany’s main establishment party, have been severely weakened. The party’s support for economically damaging energy policies and its strong backing of Germany’s involvement in the war in Ukraine have alienated voters. The Greens’ leadership, unwilling to acknowledge its role in these failures, continues to blame others-whether it’s the SPD for “stealing” their voters or the electorate for daring to vote for other parties. This arrogance is hastening the party’s decline.

The FDP, meanwhile, has long struggled to appeal to anyone beyond its core base of professionals and the wealthy, whose primary political identity revolves around tax cuts. The party’s negligible presence in Brandenburg confirms its limited appeal and its growing irrelevance in a rapidly changing political landscape.

The emergence of the Alliance Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW), led by former Left Party member Sarah Wagenknecht and Amira Mohamed Ali, adds another layer of complexity to Germany’s political puzzle. With 13.5 percent of the vote in Brandenburg, the BSW has outperformed the mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which managed only 12.1 percent. This makes the BSW a potential kingmaker in the formation of any future coalition government.

The BSW’s platform is unique in that it combines left-wing economic policies-such as higher taxes on the wealthy and better public services-with conservative stances on cultural and social issues, particularly regarding migration. This hybrid approach appeals to a broad cross-section of voters who feel alienated by both the traditional left and right.

However, for the SPD to form a government in Brandenburg, it will need the BSW’s cooperation. Yet Wagenknecht’s party is unlikely to accept a coalition that does not include some of its core demands, particularly on foreign policy. The BSW has vocally opposed Germany’s involvement in the Ukraine war and the decision to allow the US to station new intermediate-range missiles in Germany.

While these are federal issues, not regional ones, Wagenknecht and her co-leaders are experienced enough to know that symbolic victories-such as including these positions in a coalition agreement-can have far-reaching implications. If the SPD refuses to make even symbolic concessions, it risks losing the BSW’s support and, with it, the chance to govern.

Brandenburg’s election results, when taken alongside those of Thuringia and Saxony, paint a clear picture of a German political system in flux. The SPD is in terminal decline, while the AfD and BSW continue to gain ground. The traditional parties, including the CDU, are losing their grip on power, forced to navigate a political landscape that is increasingly fragmented and polarized.

At the heart of this upheaval is Germany’s failure to redefine its role in Europe and the world. Stuck in a policy of “same old, same old,” Germany finds itself with a stagnating economy, diminished sovereignty, and a political establishment more focused on fighting Russia than addressing domestic concerns. Until the country’s elites are willing to rethink their approach, Germany’s political instability is likely to continue, with more elections like Brandenburg’s revealing the cracks in the system.

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