Kamala Harris, the newly anointed face of the Democratic Party, is riding a wave of momentum that has dramatically altered the landscape of the 2024 US presidential race. In just a few short weeks, her campaign has gone from a state of near-certain defeat under President Joe Biden to a position of strength, inspiring hope and excitement among Democrats. However, despite the apparent success of this transition, it would be premature to count out Donald Trump. The race remains highly competitive, and Harris’s early gains could paradoxically present both an advantage and a risk.
The Democratic Party’s decision to shift the spotlight from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris was a bold move that has paid off. Biden’s presidency, while more impactful than many had anticipated, was on a downward trajectory, with polls predicting a significant loss in November. Harris, however, has brought new energy to the campaign, revitalizing the Democratic base and turning age – a key vulnerability for Biden – into a strength against Trump. At 20 years younger than Trump, Harris has effectively positioned herself as the candidate of the future, with the slogan “We’re not going back” resonating strongly with voters.
Her appeal is particularly strong among the very demographics that Biden struggled to retain: young, Black, and Hispanic Americans. In battleground states where Biden was lagging, Harris is now pulling ahead, and the excitement surrounding her campaign is reminiscent of Barack Obama’s first presidential run in 2008. This shift has created a sense of optimism among Democrats, who were previously bracing for a tough loss.
On the other side of the political spectrum, Donald Trump is facing significant challenges. The former president, once a master of campaign strategy, now appears increasingly out of sync. His attempts to counter Harris have been unfocused, and his usual tactics—like culture wars and race baiting—are failing to gain traction. Trump’s inability to settle on a coherent strategy is causing concern within his campaign, as he struggles to adjust to the new dynamics.
Trump’s recent public appearances have only added to the perception that he is struggling. For example, during an event with Elon Musk, Trump’s performance was marred by technical issues, rambling speeches, and bizarre comments that left many questioning his cognitive and physical fitness. Age, once a liability for Biden, is now becoming a problem for Trump as well, with scrutiny on his capacities increasing.
Despite her early success, Harris’s campaign is not without its risks. The excitement and momentum she has generated could lead to complacency among Democrats, who might believe that the hardest part of the battle is already behind them. However, the race remains perilously close, and Trump’s resilience should not be underestimated.
Polls show that Trump is still popular, with a 44 percent approval rating—higher than at the same point in his 2016 and 2020 campaigns. Additionally, Harris’s lead in crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan is slim, and history shows that Trump has the ability to close such gaps as the election approaches. Furthermore, Harris’s profile as a “coastal elite” could alienate voters in key regions, and her progressive record might be vulnerable to Republican attacks.
The structural advantages that Republicans enjoy in the electoral college mean that Harris could win the popular vote by a significant margin and still lose the election, as has happened before. Thus, while Harris’s campaign has made a strong start, the race is far from over.
As the campaign progresses, Harris’s momentum must be maintained with strategic precision, as the final stretch of the race will undoubtedly test both her and Trump in new ways. The enthusiasm surrounding her candidacy is a powerful asset, but it must be harnessed with caution, ensuring that the Democratic base remains energized and focused on the challenges ahead. Meanwhile, Trump’s unpredictability and proven ability to rally in the face of adversity serve as a reminder that this race is far from decided. In the end, the outcome will hinge not only on the candidates’ strengths but also on their ability to navigate the complexities of an electorate deeply divided and wary of the stakes involved.
