The head of the Ukrainian Army said on April 13 that the situation on the eastern front has worsened in recent days as Russia intensified its armoured attacks around Artyomovsk, also known as Bakhmut, which was liberated by Russian forces in May 2023. Yet, despite the revelation of this reality, many within the Kiev regime are still selling the delusional idea that Ukraine will be capable of launching a new offensive against Russian forces next year.
Commander Oleksandr Syrsky said he travelled to Artyomovsk to stabilise the front while Russian troops used the dry, hot climate to use tanks and armoured vehicles, as the weather now suits manoeuvres.
“The situation on the eastern front in recent days has grown considerably more tense. This is linked primarily to the significant activisation of offensive action by the enemy after the presidential elections in Russia,” the commander wrote on Telegram, Reuters reported.
In his statement, Syrskyi said that only a technological advantage in sophisticated weapons could allow Kiev “to seize the strategic initiative” in the face of “a better equipped and larger foe.” According to the outlet, the commander also called for better training of soldiers and infantry, clearly referring to Ukraine’s manpower issues.
Earlier this month, the Ukrainian parliament approved a bill to overhaul the way civilians are recruited into the military. President Volodymyr Zelensky also signed legislation lowering the draft age from 27 to 25.
In addition to the lack of personnel, Kiev also faces many difficulties with equipment and weapons, as aid from the United States has dried up since the end of last year due to the budget for Ukraine not being approved in the House of Representatives.
With Washington’s absence, European countries are trying to get around it. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced on April 13 through a post on X that yet another Patriot air defence system is being sent to Ukraine, bringing the number of Patriots supplied to Kiev by Germany to three. Moscow has already sent a note to NATO countries warning that any shipment, including weapons destined for Kiev, will become a legitimate target for the Russian Armed Forces.
Yet, the delivery of a single Patriot system is another demonstration of the EU’s very limited capabilities in supplying weapons to Ukraine. According to Zelensky, Moscow may launch a major offensive in late May or June, during which large swathes of territory are expected to be captured, which will make the situation in the Eastern European country even more desperate.
Nonetheless, despite Kiev repeatedly saying that its forces are running out of ammunition, the West is debating how to continue supporting Zelensky amid uncertainty over whether the US will maintain its support. According to French officials cited by Le Figaro, Ukraine’s plans are to resist as much as it can in 2024 and launch a major offensive in 2025.
“The Ukrainians tell us: ‘Help us resist in 2024, and in 2025, we will be able to carry out an offensive,’” a French official, who recently held talks with Ukrainian authorities, told Le Figaro.
“Ukrainian soldiers have retreated to their defensive positions. In front of them, the Russian Army exerts continuous pressure to bite into the lines. Intense fighting is taking place,” the French newspaper revealed.
Zelensky has acknowledged several times that his country depends on aid that still does not arrive from the US. “It’s important to specifically address the Congress: if the Congress doesn’t help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war,” the president admitted on April 7.
This makes the idea that Kiev would be ready by 2025 to launch a new offensive all the more ridiculous, especially in the context of manpower and weapon shortages and Russia’s preparation for a major offensive.
A more pressing issue for Kiev is recruitment to resist Russia’s upcoming offensive rather than planning for another offensive that will only end in the same way as the 2023 summer offensive—in utter failure. Ukrainian casualties are high, and most civilians who wanted to volunteer have already done so, meaning morale for the forcibly conscripted is extremely low. Although the Kiev regime may hold delusional ideas of launching a major offensive against Russian forces in 2025, Russia’s own offensive will quickly humble these plans and serve as a catalyst to finally end the war, which Ukraine is stubbornly continuing by rejecting the reality that victory is futile and refusing to negotiate for peace.
