It’s still far too early to confidently analyze the consequences of the October 7 attacks as the geopolitical landscape is constantly metamorphosing. However, we can review the current situation and comment on the failings and ‘successes’ of all interested stakeholders – successes purposely in inverted commas as no individual, state, demographic nor organization has truly benefited from the Hamas pogrom. Perhaps in truth there have only been losers.
It must be apparent to even the most loyal supporters of the Netanyahu government that there were dire intelligence failings leading up to the slaughter. As much as it pains me to admit this, Israeli belief in the absolute reliability of their intelligence security sector was shattered and future internal investigation will hopefully identify the failings and rectify. Relying on the comfort of intelligence infallibility is no longer an option for the Israeli public.
The Israeli military response has undoubtedly shocked, confused and challenged the world order. In previous flare ups Israel’s response has been harsh but controlled as global pressure reined them in after a relatively short period. This time has been markedly different as a result of the scale of the atrocities. It is abundantly apparent that Hamas as a military organization has been annihilated and will probably never recover from the Israeli onslaught, still ongoing and unlikely to stop despite the UN, Israel’s allies and opposition alike politically threatening her. Hamas, and her political, military and financial puppet masters, Qatar and Iran never considered that they would be a spent force barely six months after committing the subhuman barbarism that started the conflict. This has truly shocked them into disbelief and without an effective plan B.
Pressure from the UN, global protests, threats of sanctions and isolation have not and will not deter this Israeli administration from dousing the fire completely. A ceasefire at this stage will only put out three quarters of the fire and this would not prevent future isolationist Hamas attacks. The Hamas Charter taught in UNWRA schools since 1988 command Jew extermination. They tried but failed in their objectives and the Gazans whether or not they are Hamas supporters are paying the price of the actions of their now defeated totalitarian, theocratic, Nazi loving leaders.
Iran too are paying a heavy price as one of their limbs has been amputated. Recognizing how badly their pupil Hamas has suffered, Iranian efforts to involve their proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, have proven to be so far nothing more than a minor inconvenience. The expediency with which the Biden administration, the UK and to a lesser extent France and Australia acted dispatching battleships to prevent escalating Houthi attacks in the Red Sea also came as a shock to Iran. These actions supported by the Arab Sunni Muslim nations such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have further isolated non-Arab, Shia Iran from the Sunni Muslim world community.
The Lebanese Hezbollah terrorists are creating problems for Israel in the north and recently their attacks have been escalating. However, the attacks have been muted, controlled and subdued and Israel’s counter and preventative responses appear to be containing the Hezbollah threat. The big question is why did Hezbollah and Hamas not coordinate and why have Hezbollah refrained from an all out war given their military strength. Strategically they and Iran failed by not simultaneously supporting Hamas militarily on October 7. Moreover, ISIS have recently showed their terrorist capabilities with the theatre attack in Moscow and have been creating chaos in Syria attacking both Iranian and Syrian forces supported by Russia. Iranian influence is waning and being challenged by an enemy that is obliged to maintain Shia, Sunni disorder. Internal protests in Iran, not covered by mainstream media are also infecting and impacting Iranian social structures.
Summing up it is apparent that Israel, perhaps banking on Donald Trump being elected on November 5 and realizing that Iran has lost a limb will continue to punish Hamas. The silent support from Arab Sunni leaders to dilute Iranian influence and the fact that Hezbollah are refraining and that the Houthis realistically are irrelevant further damage Iran’s military credibility.
The other losers so far are Jews in the diaspora as antisemitic attacks are on a steepening upward trajectory. Islamists have united with the far left, the Greens and elements of European (specifically Irish, Scottish and Basque) nationalism to create an atmosphere not experienced by Jews since the early 1930’s in Germany. Israel’s government though expressing concern on the rise of Jew hatred outside of Israel, understandably have other immediate priorities and until the current situation is finalized Jews outside of Israel will be targeted.
Ironically the support and eventual defeat of Hamas may benefit both Jews in the diaspora and the Palestinians. This paradox may be explained in the former instance by the rise of the silent majority opposed to the growing momentum of Islamization in Europe, the UK and the USA. Political gains being made by those parties challenging Islamic influence such as the Reform Party in the UK and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands continue to challenge the Islamist, anti-Jewish, pro-Palestinian mobs. Further Islamist protests on our streets will undoubtedly create the conditions to encourage the growing opposition. The defeat of Hamas could at last be the window of opportunity for Gazans to adopt pragmatic new leaders and follow their brothers in the UAE, Morocco and Bahrain to normalize relations with Israel started by Donald Trump with the Abraham Accords. Trump’s election would undoubtedly expand this initiative and assist the Palestinians.
Will Iran continue to weaken? Will UNWRA survive given how their credibility has been shattered? And can mainstream media outlets such as the BBC recover from the professional incompetence, intellectual dishonesty, imbecility and outright bias of their news presenters?
BLITZ and the entire UK Jewish Community must like me be ever so grateful to have Peter Baum’s regular updates which are always clear, articulate and easy to read, hence truly understand which is more than I get from other media. Once again thank you Peteer and your dedicated team at BLITZ