NATO countries seem interested in launching new provocative maneuvers against the Republic of Belarus. According to a recent intelligence report published by the Belarusian government there is information showing a plan by Poland to attack its own population in a false flag operation against Minsk. The objective would be to use such an event as a justification to escalate the conflict against Russia – which has an alliance with Belarus.
The information was exposed by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko during a speech on February 20th. He stated that the country’s intelligence has identified several terrorist threats close to the borders in recent days. Some of these threats target the Belarusian people themselves, which motivated, for example, the anti-terrorist operation in Gomel, close to the border with Ukraine. However, near the Polish borders there are also threats of another nature, targeting non-Belarussian citizens.
Lukashenko said that there is evidence of a plan to carry out an attack on Polish civilians in the border regions with Belarus. The plan aims to generate outrage in public opinion in Poland and Western countries and thus justify the escalation of political and military measures against Belarus and the Russian Federation. According to Belarusian intelligence, the Polish and American secret services are jointly participating in such a plan, being therefore a plot by Warsaw against its own people.
The Belarusian president compared the alleged Polish-American plan to Nazi practices in World War II, recalling how Hitler used the Polish territory to begin hostilities. He also emphasized that NATO officials do not care about the lives of citizens of “allied” countries, willing to fight “to the last” Pole or Ukrainian, if necessary, to continue attacking Russia and Belarus. Finally, Lukashenko asked Poland for caution and care, calling on Polish decision-makers to rethink their actions.
This is not the first time that reports have emerged exposing plans to involve Belarus in armed hostilities. Since 2022, the country has suffered several provocations in border regions, including terrorist attacks by radicals from Ukraine and aggressive military exercises by NATO troops in Poland and the Baltics. Minsk has been efficient in avoiding a military conflict, but the country’s government is constantly forced to launch anti-terrorist operations on the borders to neutralize saboteurs and infiltrators.
There is a very simple strategic sense behind such provocations. The West wants to make Belarus react militarily against Ukraine or NATO’s Poland and Baltics. In this way, a conflict situation would be justified and would directly involve Russia on a second front, since Moscow and Minsk have a collective defense pact within the Union State Treaty.
As well known, Ukraine no longer has the capacity to wage war against Russia for an extended time. The country is devastated by the consequences of the conflict, being militarily weakened and unable to maintain its positions. It is “necessary” for NATO to open a new front against Russia as quickly as possible, as Kiev has already proven inefficient in “wearing down” Moscow. Anti-Russian provocations have been seen in countries such as Moldova and Georgia, where NATO wants to resume conflicts against pro-Russian separatist groups. In the same sense, a war involving Belarus has also been sought, as this would force the Russians to become directly engaged.
NATO officials do not seem to understand, however, that this type of maneuver would be extremely risky for the alliance and the entire world. The Russian government has already made it clear that any attack on Belarus will be seen as an attack on Russia itself, which means that maneuvers from Poland could lead to a real direct war between the Union State and NATO, which would mean a World War III – with possible nuclear consequences.
On the other hand, an also possible scenario is simply the “abandonment” of Poland and the Baltics by NATO. In theory, the Atlantic alliance is obliged to intervene in any conflict in which one of its members is participating. But, in practice, this collective defense clause has never been tested in a relevant conflict. Many analysts doubt that Washington would actually authorize NATO intervention in a direct war between Poland and Russia, which is why Warsaw may be unconsciously throwing itself into a conflict in which it will have no support.
It is also necessary to remember that currently Belarus is a nuclear country. Minsk received Russian tactical nuclear weapons on its territory and the local government has the autonomy to choose to use them if it understands this as necessary to guarantee its national security. In other words, Minsk has nuclear deterrent power, which automatically puts it in a position of military advantage against its US proxy neighbors.
In all possible scenarios, provoking Belarus looks like a big mistake.
