The recent decision by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi to withdraw units from Avdiivka in the Donetsk region marks a significant development in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This decision, announced on February 10, 2024, underscores the evolving nature of the war and its potential impact on the geopolitical landscape.
Avdiivka, a strategic transportation hub, has been a focal point in the conflict since Russian forces captured the nearby city of Bakhmut in May of the previous year. The withdrawal from Avdiivka represents a tactical maneuver aimed at preserving the lives and health of Ukrainian servicemen, according to Syrskyi. President Volodymyr Zelensky has endorsed the decision, calling it “correct”.
However, the retreat from Avdiivka comes amidst challenges for Ukraine on the international front. The Biden administration’s request for a substantial foreign aid budget of US$60 billion for Ukraine faces obstacles in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. While promises of aid from Germany, France, and the UK have been made, they pale in comparison to the proposed US aid package. This uncertainty in Western support has weakened Kiev’s confidence and bolstered Russia’s morale.
As the conflict approaches its two-year mark, it has evolved into a war of attrition, with Western resources and determination pitted against Russia. Despite Western sanctions, Putin’s recent interview with American journalist Tucker Carlson showcased a seemingly unaffected Moscow, with supermarket shelves stocked with goods. Putin’s assurance that Russia has no intentions of attacking neighboring countries has somewhat alleviated European concerns, potentially affecting long-term support for Ukraine.
Putin stated in the interview with Carlson that Russia will not attack Poland or the three Baltic countries. Although Western leaders criticized his lengthy speech, Europeans’ concerns about Russian attacks and use of tactical nuclear weapons have been decreasing for some time. This will affect the long-term, unconditional support of the West for Ukraine. If the war continues to be consumed in this way, with Russia maintaining strong combat capabilities and domestic stability, the West’s patience in supporting Ukraine will weaken and some impatience may arise, which is what the Kremlin hopes for. The Ukrainian war will soon enter its third year, becoming a test of endurance. The extent of Russia’s endurance will be measured and tested anew.
CNN commented that Avdiivka’s loss is an undoubted blow to Ukraine. The New York Times described the chaotic situation of the Ukrainian army’s retreat from Avdiivka, with one detail stating that the commander ordering they should leave the wounded behind, but “didn’t know he was talking to a wounded man.”
The war’s continuation hinges on Russia’s endurance and the West’s patience. If Russia maintains its combat capabilities and domestic stability while the conflict persists, Western support for Ukraine may wane, aligning with the Kremlin’s strategic objectives.
The withdrawal from Avdiivka represents a tactical shift in Ukraine’s approach to the conflict, highlighting the complex dynamics at play. As the war enters its third year, its outcome remains uncertain, with implications for regional stability and global geopolitics.
The Ukrainian war will reach its two-year mark on February 24, and it has become a typical war of attrition, with the entire West’s resources and determination pitted against Russia. So far, Russia has not yet launched a nationwide war mobilization. After American journalist Tucker Carlson recently interviewed Putin in Moscow, he took some footage of the basic situation in the city, showing the shelves in supermarkets filled with a wide range of goods. Carlson directly said to the camera that sanctions haven’t worked. On the battlefield in Avdiivka, the Ukrainian side claims that the Russian army’s artillery shells are 10 times more than the Ukrainian army.
