The recent China-mediated ceasefire between Myanmar’s ruling junta and the Three Brotherhood Alliance brought a momentary sigh of relief to Myanmar’s people and its neighboring countries, including Bangladesh. However, the subsequent capture of Paletwa by the Arakan Army reignites concerns, opening up a multifaceted set of challenges for Bangladesh. This article delves deeper into the complex issues surrounding Myanmar’s civil war and explores its wide-ranging implications on Bangladesh’s security, the Rohingya refugee crisis, trade relations, and the need for international intervention.
The absence of a stable government in Myanmar amplifies concerns regarding the repatriation of Rohingya refugees currently sheltered in Bangladesh. The dwindling international aid exacerbates the difficulties faced by the Bangladesh government in accommodating and providing for the massive refugee population. The Myanmar military junta’s refusal to grant Rohingya citizenship, a fundamental right for an ethnic group with centuries-long roots in Myanmar, adds layers of complexity to the repatriation process.
Compounding these challenges is the heightened risk of persecution against the Rohingya upon their return, exacerbated by the ongoing civil war with various ethnic groups. The lack of a robust governance structure in Myanmar raises concerns about the safety and well-being of the Rohingya, making them susceptible to further persecution and prompting more to seek refuge in Bangladesh.
Beyond the humanitarian crisis, Bangladesh grapples with escalating national security threats stemming from the conflict in Myanmar. Infiltration by groups such as the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) has resulted in killings and unrest within Rohingya camps in Bangladesh. Furthermore, these elements are actively involved in arms and drug smuggling activities, posing a direct threat to Bangladesh’s internal security.
ARSA’s alleged facilitation of arms smuggling within the camps underscores the urgency of bolstering vigilance along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. The Golden Triangle, a notorious hub for the Asian drug trade, amplifies the risk of criminal networks exploiting Myanmar’s internal strife to expand their operations, making it imperative for Bangladesh to fortify its border defenses.
Myanmar’s civil war has not only jeopardized security but also disrupted the trade relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar. The substantial bilateral trade engagements encompassing pharmaceuticals, vegetables, fish, construction materials, and more are now hindered by the conflict. The trade halt at the Teknaf land port since November 2023 has resulted in a daily loss of Tk 3 crore in revenue for the Bangladesh government, further aggravating the economic challenges faced by the country.
The Arakan Army’s control over areas bordering Bangladesh raises concerns about violence escalating in these regions, prompting the need for enhanced vigilance. The delicate nature of the relationship between Bangladesh and Myanmar is evident in previous diplomatic tensions, such as mortar shells from Myanmar exploding in Bandarban’s border area, resulting in casualties and diplomatic strains.
Myanmar’s civil war extends its repercussions beyond Bangladesh, affecting neighboring countries like India and China. The Three Brotherhood Alliance’s claims over the Shan State and critical trade routes with China underscore China’s strategic interests in the region. The spill-over effect of the conflict is evident in a mortar shell from Myanmar reaching China, causing injuries and complicating regional dynamics.
In India, the ongoing unrest in Manipur, partially attributed to the migration of the Kuki community from Myanmar, highlights the interconnectedness of regional conflicts. The civil war’s ripple effects, including the exacerbation of old fault lines, pose challenges to regional stability. The geopolitical dynamics in the region are further complicated by the involvement of external actors, necessitating a comprehensive and coordinated approach to address the shared challenges.
While the China-mediated ceasefire offered a temporary reprieve, skepticism surrounds the trustworthiness of Myanmar’s military junta. Rebel groups have accused them of breaching ceasefire conditions, leading to the resumption of conflict. The international community must recognize the urgency of the situation and exert collective pressure on Myanmar’s military junta to step down, paving the way for the restoration of democracy—a demand resonating with the majority in Myanmar.
Myanmar’s civil war presents a complex web of challenges for Bangladesh, spanning security threats, the Rohingya refugee crisis, economic disruptions, and broader regional implications. As the conflict continues to unfold, Bangladesh finds itself navigating a precarious landscape, grappling with the multifaceted issues emanating from its neighbor’s internal strife. International intervention becomes paramount to fostering stability, facilitating the return of democracy in Myanmar, and mitigating the far-reaching spillover effects on the region. Only through concerted efforts can the interconnected challenges faced by Bangladesh and its neighbors be effectively addressed, offering a glimmer of hope for a more stable and secure future.
