According to the latest report from the Eurasia Group, 2024 is considered the “Voldemort of Years” politically. The report, titled “Top Risks for 2024”, identifies three major wars that will dominate world affairs: Russia vs. Ukraine, Israel vs. Hamas, and the US vs. itself. The top global risks outlined in the report are “the US vs. itself”, “Middle East on the brink”, and “Partitioned Ukraine”, emphasizing the significant role the US plays in global risks for the upcoming year.
Eurasia Group points out that the US is facing internal challenges, with public trust in core institutions at historic lows, and polarization and partisanship at historic highs. The report suggests that the upcoming US election poses a significant risk, as the potential for allegations of mass fraud and widespread intimidation campaigns could arise, regardless of the election outcome. The internal political division and irreconcilable conflicts between the Democratic and Republican Parties contribute to a political deadlock, leaving the country without a clear path forward.
The report also highlights the increasing polarization and social division within American politics, with some polls indicating a more open attitude toward using violence to achieve political goals. The US is described as the “United States of Political Violence”, raising concerns globally.
Furthermore, the report links the other two major global risks, the Russia-Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict, to the US. The US’s push for NATO’s eastward expansion is seen as a direct contributor to the Russia-Ukraine war, with the US acting as a hurdle to a ceasefire. In the case of the Gaza conflict, the US is criticized for maintaining a biased stance and not genuinely promoting peace.
The report concludes that the US is the source of global risks, and the international community must address this reality to prevent the US from further impacting global stability. Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, emphasizes the need for countries worldwide to engage with the US with the core objective of avoiding additional risks to global peace and stability.