Nigerian president Bola Tinubu, having been in the office for over six months now seems to be facing growing security challenges inherited a precarious security situation, primarily fueled by the notorious Boko Haram militancy combined with insurgency. Boko Haram, founded in 2002, seeks to establish an Islamic state in the region and has perpetrated numerous heinous acts, including abductions, bombings, and massacres. This notorious outfit continues to gain strength despite concerted efforts by subsequent Nigerian governments and international partners, and until now, eradicating the threat posed by Boko Haram remains elusive. Meanwhile, regional complexities, ethnic tensions, and economic disparities continue to intensify the situation.
According to counterterrorism research groups, Nigerian radical Islamic militancy outfit Boko Haram emerged in 2002 under the leadership of Muhammad Yusuf. Since 2009, this militancy group has been involved in various attacks in Nigeria including the attack on the United Nations (UN) offices in Abuja and several attacks on various government institutions. Boko Haram also poses security threat to the United States considering that it has been issuing threats to America. Additionally, Nigeria is a key strategic partner of the US implying that Nigeria’s stability or lack of it affects the US in multiple ways. This is another reason why Boko Haram jihadist would want to attack the US or its citizens living in Nigeria or in the neighboring nations.
In the last few years, links between the Islamic State (ISIS) and Boko Haram have flourished. Islamic State has offered advice to Boko Haram on how to build a Caliphate in the African continent. The ongoing links between the two jihadist outfits have now developed into a practical relationship.
Boko Haram supports its operations through bank robberies, trafficking illegal drugs and weapons, kidnapping for ransom, exploiting local resources and human trafficking. It has built connections with transnational trafficking networks, while it also maintains connections with drug-barons in Afghanistan as well as Middle Eastern terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas for continuing and expanding its involvement in drug trafficking. This Nigerian militancy outfit has also found connections with narco-cartels in Colombia, Mexico, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala and other South American countries.
Some research-scholars point out that Boko Haram also extorts money from wealthy people. The group also collects taxes from ordinary citizens who reside in areas under its control. The total amount of money received as ransom is estimated to run into millions of dollars.
Experts say, Boko Haram also relies on money-laundering activities as one of the key sources of generating fund. Nigerian intelligence has traced transfers of cash to Boko Haram from Nigerians living in the United States, Pakistan and European nations. Other studies also indicate that the group receives small amounts of money from Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and sometimes intercepts funds meant for humanitarian assistance in Nigeria coming from abroad.
Although Boko Haram is gradually growing into a massive monster that not only poses threats to Nigerians – it also is expanding its footprint within the neighboring nations. Meanwhile, humanitarian toll is astounding, with widespread displacement and loss of lives. Only in 2022, 48 percent of all terrorism deaths worldwide occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa. Niger and Gabon, neighboring and smaller West African countries, were the latest in a line of military overthrows, being referred to as a contagion of coups. Under such conditions, Western nations are expecting Nigeria to play crucial role in stabilizing the region and the continent. Due to such expectations of the West, Nigerian president Bola Tinubu is clearly under pressure.
According to experts of geopolitics and diplomacy, Western nations, particularly the United States may attempt to blackmail Bola Tinubu and his administration by using Boko Haram and security cards to stop Abuja from deepening relations with Washington’s arch rivals – China and Russia. China is a crucial partner to a number of African countries, including Nigeria, in railway expansion, and as an alternate military equipment partner. Washington and its Western allies would want Nigeria to stay out of Chinese influence. To achieve this goal, America may continue exerting pressure on Bola Tinubu in multiple ways. And if there is any sign of Tinubu ignoring Washington’s desire and continue ongoing process of deepening relationship with China for the sake of Nigeria’s national interest, Nigeria may be pushed towards much deeper security challenges with expansion of activities of Boko Haram while there can even be attempt of removing Tinubu government from power.
