As the cold winds of Agrahayan usher in the winter season in Bangladesh, a familiar chill sets in the political atmosphere. Over the past couple of decades, this time of the year has witnessed not only the onset of social movements but has also become a critical period for electoral dynamics. With the Awami League enjoying a prolonged tenure in power, the political landscape in Bangladesh is marked by tension, contrasting strategies, and the persistence of certain tactics that may have lost their effectiveness.
The Awami League’s unprecedented longevity in power raises comparisons with historical figures like the Mughal emperor Aurangzeb and Congress prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru. The party’s assertion that those not supporting it are against the country’s welfare has created a narrative that leaves little room for alternative patriotic voices. The ruling party perceives itself as the sole custodian of national interests, dismissing others as renegades.
On the opposing front, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), a significant political force, finds itself out of power for 17 consecutive years. The party’s demand for elections under a neutral government reflects a broader consensus that partisan elections undermine the democratic process. However, the effectiveness of this demand, coupled with traditional tools like hartals and blockades, is now in question.
The period around the 2014-15 elections saw widespread protests, with the BNP boycotting and resisting the polls. However, these traditional methods, such as hartals and blockades, proved non-productive. The question arises: why does the BNP believe these tactics will yield different results this time? The collateral damage inflicted by these strategies, disrupting daily life and the economy, prompts the public to question the efficacy of such protests.
Examining the current political landscape, three potential scenarios emerge. First, there is a desire for a change in power, with hopes that ousting the Awami League could pave the way for the BNP. Second, historical precedents suggest that a power vacuum might not immediately be filled by the main opposition, leading to the rise of a third party. The third scenario contemplates the BNP’s struggle against not only a partisan government but an entire state machinery aligned with the ruling party.
The BNP’s prolonged movement has taken a toll on its leadership, with arrests, convictions, and deaths affecting its organizational structure. The Awami League’s consolidation of state power further complicates the BNP’s strategy. To succeed, the BNP needs to isolate the governing party from state power, a challenging task given the intertwined nature of party, government, and state.
Historically, powerful governments have crumbled when faced with mass resistance. The BNP’s strategy should focus on mobilizing the people against the government, not just through hartals and blockades but by building sustained, widespread resistance. The recent gatherings in different cities and at Naya Paltan may indicate discontent, but they alone do not constitute a comprehensive strategy for change.
Hartals and blockades, once potent tools, have lost their edge. The BNP must evolve its strategy beyond these traditional methods. Mere gatherings are insufficient; the party needs a robust plan to demonstrate its commitment to providing better governance than the current regime. The BNP must articulate a vision that goes beyond the removal of the Awami League from power.
To instill confidence in the people, the BNP must present a clear and compelling plan for governance. The party should address critical issues such as economic development, social welfare, and good governance. A commitment to providing better services at a lower cost than the ruling party will resonate with the public, offering a tangible alternative to the status quo.
As Bangladesh navigates its political landscape, the BNP faces a pivotal moment. The challenges of contending with a dominant ruling party, navigating a complex state machinery, and mobilizing the masses demand a nuanced and evolved strategy. The days of relying solely on hartals and blockades are over; the BNP must reimagine its role in shaping the nation’s future and present a vision that inspires confidence and commitment from the people. Only through a comprehensive and forward-thinking approach can the BNP hope to bring about meaningful political change in Bangladesh.
