As the deadline for submitting nomination papers to the Election Commission looms only a week away, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) finds itself at a critical juncture, grappling with two formidable challenges: preventing defections from within the party and devising fresh strategies to sustain its anti-government movement. The BNP leadership anticipates an intensified crackdown by the government, aiming to thwart their opposition activities.
Leaders within the BNP have reported that the ruling Awami League is actively trying to lure a section of BNP leaders away from the party. The enticement includes offers to run for parliament as independents or as leaders of smaller, less-known parties. Despite these external pressures, Iqbal Mahmud Tuku, a standing committee member of the party, remains confident that the government’s attempts to coerce party leaders into participating in the upcoming election will not succeed. Tuku emphasizes the “rock-solid” unity within the BNP, extending from top leaders to rural activists.
However, recent attacks on the homes and businesses of BNP leaders have raised concerns among the party’s top echelons. They perceive these assaults as part of a broader government strategy to compel them to refrain from participating in demonstrations and instead engage in the electoral process. These attacks, ongoing since mid-October, are expected to persist until November 30, the deadline for submitting nomination forms to the Election Commission.
In response to the evolving political landscape, BNP standing committee members convened a series of meetings last week to assess the situation and determine the next course of action. The consensus among the top leadership is that adjustments to ongoing programs, such as hartal (strikes) and blockades, are necessary after November 30. Recognizing the challenges associated with sustaining such programs over an extended period, the party is contemplating alternative strategies, including demonstrations or the possibility of laying siege to important buildings.
Since October 29, the BNP has been calling for hartal four days a week, demanding elections under a non-partisan government. The decision to change these programs after November 30 underscores the party’s acknowledgment of the need for strategic flexibility in navigating the complex political landscape.
Notably, the BNP has scheduled a hartal on November 30, coinciding with the nomination submission deadline. Some party leaders, however, are considering alternative actions, such as laying siege to the Election Commission secretariat in the capital or the offices of returning officers across the country on that day.
Looking beyond the immediate challenges, a senior BNP leader anticipates that conflicts within the ruling Awami League and potential rifts among its allies will become more visible once the nomination papers are submitted. The Election Commission has hinted at the possibility of extending the deadline for submitting nomination papers if the BNP decides to participate in the polls. However, BNP leaders express skepticism, attributing this potential extension to the Awami League’s incomplete “seat-sharing” process with its coalition partners.
The senior BNP leader suggests a cautious approach, advocating for observing the political polarization rather than immediately resorting to hartal (general strike) and blockade post-November 30. This strategic choice reflects a nuanced understanding of the evolving political dynamics and a willingness to adapt to the changing circumstances.
The BNP’s rejection of the election schedule, citing concerns about the fairness of elections under the current government, echoes its historical stance. The party boycotted the January 5, 2014 election, demanding a caretaker government system that had been abolished through a court verdict. In contrast, the BNP participated in the 2018 election, which was marred by allegations of irregularities.
The BNP finds itself in a delicate position as it approaches the nomination deadline. Navigating internal cohesion, external pressures, and strategic adaptations will be crucial for the party’s success. The decision to modify ongoing programs and consider alternative actions reflects a dynamic approach to the challenges at hand. As the political landscape unfolds, the BNP’s ability to effectively balance its internal unity, engage with its support base, and respond strategically to external pressures will shape its trajectory in the upcoming election.
