As Bangladesh approaches its parliamentary elections scheduled for early January, the political landscape is marred by escalating tensions and street protests. The opposition, spearheaded by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), is fervently demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the establishment of an interim election-time government. However, the intensifying standoff between the ruling Awami League (AL) and the opposition paints a grim picture, with little hope for a political compromise that could mend the country’s deep-seated divisions.
The political turmoil reached a boiling point on October 28th when the BNP organized a “grand rally” advocating for nonpartisan election administration. Joined by various political parties, including Jamaat-e-Islami, the rally was seen as the opposition’s final stand against the ruling AL. In response, the AL orchestrated a “peace rally” on the same day to showcase its popular support, setting the stage for a day-long street battle between the police and AL supporters on one side and BNP activists on the other.
The trigger for the violence remains disputed, with both sides offering conflicting narratives. Eyewitness accounts, photos, and video footage, however, implicate both the police and the opposition in acts of violence. The ensuing chaos saw police assaulting unarmed citizens, firing into crowds, and opposition supporters beating a police officer to death. The BNP, while claiming that its supporters’ violence was provoked or part of government sabotage, cannot escape culpability in instances of violence and property destruction.
In the aftermath of the street protests, the AL government launched a crackdown, arresting thousands of BNP members and supporters, including high-ranking leaders. The government argues that such measures are necessary to address the political violence orchestrated by the opposition, while critics, including rights groups, contend that the government is using law and order as a guise to dismantle the anti-government movement.
Following the thwarted rally, the opposition escalated its tactics, shifting from public demonstrations to calling for nationwide strikes and blockades. These measures aimed to paralyze transportation and commerce across the country, with the first two weeks witnessing the burning of at least 100 vehicles. The BNP alleges government connivance in these acts of violence, yet its supporters are implicated in many instances. The government, in turn, claims that the blockades and associated violence have inflicted significant economic damage, costing the country billions.
The political crisis in Bangladesh has not remained confined within its borders, drawing increasing involvement from the international community. Western nations, including the United States and the European Union, have advocated for improvements to Bangladesh’s democratic processes. The opposition, particularly the BNP, has welcomed this external pressure, citing it as validation of their claims regarding the inadequacy of the political environment for fair elections.
On the contrary, regional powers like India and China have supported the status quo. While India has expressed the need for credible elections, it underscores that the upcoming elections are Bangladesh’s “internal matter.” China, previously critical of American “interference,” insists that the elections should adhere to Bangladesh’s constitution. These differing international stances contribute to the complexity of the political landscape in Bangladesh.
Amid the chaos, various actors, including Western embassies, international NGOs, and domestic stakeholders, have called for dialogue as a means to resolve the political stalemate. The AL has, at times, expressed openness to dialogue, but this option was foreclosed after the announcement of the election calendar on November 7. The BNP, on the other hand, has been notably silent on the prospect of dialogue.
Even if both sides were willing to negotiate, reaching a consensus would prove challenging. The BNP remains committed to its maximalist position, citing documented flaws in previous national polls and recent by-elections. The AL, meanwhile, insists that the election commission is independent and rejects any return to the caretaker system abolished in 2011 after a controversial supreme court decision.
Bangladesh’s current political landscape is marked by a cycle of blockades, street violence, and heavy-handed police reprisals, echoing a historical pattern during election periods. As the BNP persists in its strategy of election boycott and street blockades to challenge the ruling party, the confrontation with the state is increasingly turning violent. The country’s tradition of confrontational street politics is prevailing, with both sides strategically deploying violence to showcase their strength to the electorate.
To shift Bangladesh’s zero-sum politics to a more positive-sum approach, political accommodation is imperative. However, if compromise is perceived as an existential threat rather than a viable solution, the nation is heading towards an election that may only perpetuate the existing political crisis.
As Bangladesh hurtles towards the January elections, the political turbulence shows no signs of abating. The deep-rooted divisions, coupled with the escalation of tactics by both the ruling party and the opposition, paint a bleak picture for the country’s political future. International entanglements further complicate the situation, with Western nations pushing for democratic reforms while regional powers lend support to the status quo. The elusive path to dialogue and compromise leaves Bangladesh on the precipice of an election that may deepen, rather than resolve, its political crisis.
