Following Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s landmark visit to the United States in June this year, expectations were high for a significant deepening of Delhi-Washington relations. However, key policymakers in India may have overlooked the Biden administration’s historic gestures, which were part of a strategy to leverage the world’s largest democracy against Washington’s geostrategic interests in countering China and establishing exclusive American dominance in the region.
While Modi envisioned a new era of Indo-US relations to thwart China and prevent Beijing’s expansion in South Asia, he failed to discern America’s true agenda. The US aimed to align India as a subordinate ally, relegating it to a “little brother” status while pursuing its regional dominance, even if it meant compromising India’s national security.
In South Asia, the Biden administration has already executed its initial plan by destabilizing Afghanistan and pushing Pakistan towards a potential failed state. Now, their focus has shifted to the next objective – transforming Bangladesh into a neo-Taliban state by helping the ultra-Islamist Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its ideological ally Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) along with other leftist-Islamist forces return to power – either by participating in the January 7, 2024, general election or through an extra-constitutional process. Although the election schedule has already been announced in Bangladesh, BNP and its leftist-Islamist allies have publicly announced to foiling of this election through a “mass movement” and “mass revolt” that includes countrywide blockades.
It may be mentioned here that the BNP-Jamaat nexus and its leftist-Islamist partners are continuing the countrywide blockade and general strikes since October 29, whereas until now, more than 170 public transports have come under arson attacks with the death of several civilians and members of law enforcement agencies. It is anticipated that during the coming days and weeks, the level of destructive acts of the BNP-Jamaat nexus would increase manifold, thus creating absolute lawlessness in Bangladesh – a country with a population of 170 million.
Meanwhile, despite their recent strategic partnership, India and the United States find themselves at odds over elections and democratic practices in Bangladesh, a discord that intensified after the 2+2 dialogue in Delhi on November 10, 2023. During this dialogue, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Defense Minister Lloyd Austin engaged with their Indian counterparts, S Jaishankar and Rajnath Singh.
Observers closely monitoring India-US diplomacy note India’s distinct disagreement with the US assessment and actions regarding Bangladesh. Washington is allegedly making fervent attempts to topple the secular government of Sheikh Hasina, facilitating the rise of ultra-Islamists, pro-jihadists, and pro-Caliphate forces to power. This maneuver poses a severe threat to India’s national security, potentially allowing anti-India forces to exploit Bangladesh as a base for launching separatist and terrorist plots. In essence, Joe Biden and his policymakers are perceived to be advancing an agenda that puts India under constant threats from neighboring nations, compelling it to remain an obedient executor of America’s hegemonic designs in the region, particularly against China. Simultaneously, by fostering a neo-Taliban state in Bangladesh, the US aims to punish India for its ongoing relations with Russia and its disregard for Western sanctions on Moscow.
Under such a scenario, former Indian diplomat Gurjit Singh, while talking to a local journalist, highlights the fundamental disagreement between India and the US on the Bangladesh issue. He emphasizes India’s fear that the US approach could backfire, leading to a turbulent and violent situation in Bangladesh.
India has consistently asserted the primacy of political stability over disruptive elections, a viewpoint that it conveyed during the 2+2 dialogue. The joint statement released after the dialogue made no mention of Bangladesh, indicating a lack of agreement on the issue.
Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra clarified India’s position, stating that Bangladesh’s elections are its internal matter, and India respects the democratic process. This stance, explicitly raised after the dialogue, signals India’s readiness to confront the US on the Bangladesh issue.
Analysts point out the significance of India’s emphasis on stability, peace, and progress, reflecting its concern about potential unrest, violence, and radicalization in Bangladesh resulting from the US’s proactive approach.
India draws on historical examples, particularly the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, to caution the US against unilateral actions in Bangladesh.
Observers speculate that the US may reconsider its position in light of India’s firm stance. Former Indian high commissioner in Dhaka, Pankaj Saran, emphasizes that the US cannot easily dismiss India’s views, considering it the most important partner in the region. While some believe that the US may review its Bangladesh policy over time, acknowledging India’s strong position, others caution that this change will not occur overnight. The soft attitude of the US towards the ultra-Islamist Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) adds complexity to the situation. As of now, Delhi and Washington’s assessments of Bangladesh’s political situation remain starkly different, heightening tensions between the two nations.
Potential risks of Islamist forces returning to power
Bangladesh, a country at the crossroads of South Asia, has witnessed significant political shifts over the years. As discussions surrounding the political landscape gain momentum, one focal point of concern is the prospect of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), known for its Islamist leanings, returning to power.
One of the primary concerns surrounding the return of the BNP to power is the potential influence of Islamist ideologies on policy-making. The party’s historical alignment with conservative elements raises questions about the extent to which religious considerations may shape governance, potentially impacting the country’s secular foundation and inclusivity.
In a multicultural and multi-religious nation like Bangladesh, safeguarding minority rights is crucial for social harmony. The BNP’s return to power could pose risks to the rights and freedoms of religious and ethnic minorities. With BNP’s previous track record when it was in power during 2001-2006, there are concerns that an Islamist-influenced government might not adequately protect minority communities, leading to increased marginalization and discrimination.
The status of women’s rights in Bangladesh has made significant strides over the last fifteen years during the rule of Awami League under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. However, the return of an Islamist-oriented party to power could potentially roll back some of these gains. Concerns include the implementation of conservative policies that limit women’s freedoms and access to education, employment, and healthcare.
The BNP’s return may also raise national security concerns — regionally and internationally. The party’s historical associations with Islamist groups may result in a more lenient approach towards radical elements, potentially creating an environment conducive to the growth of extremist ideologies and activities. This, in turn, could pose threats not only to Bangladesh but also to neighboring countries, particularly India.
Political instability often has economic repercussions. The return of the BNP may introduce uncertainties that impact Bangladesh’s economic stability and totally jeopardize its economic progress that has been made during the past 15 years. Moreover, shifts in foreign policy, especially concerning alliances and international relations, could influence economic partnerships and aid, potentially affecting the country’s growth trajectory.
It is important to mention here that Bangladesh’s geopolitical importance in South Asia cannot be overstated. Any significant political change in the country has the potential to reverberate across the region. The return of an Islamist-leaning government could impact regional stability, particularly concerning relations with neighboring India and Myanmar.
As Bangladesh navigates its political future, the potential return of the Islamist Bangladesh Nationalist Party to power raises legitimate concerns. It is essential for stakeholders within and beyond the nation’s borders to closely monitor developments, emphasizing the importance of preserving democratic values, protecting minority rights, and ensuring the stability and security of the region. The international community’s engagement and support for Bangladesh during this critical juncture can play a pivotal role in shaping a future that aligns with democratic principles and safeguards the well-being of all its citizens.
Considering all of the factors, whereas the next election is just weeks away, the ruling Awami League may face severe challenges, particularly due to Washington’s continuous pressure and the Biden administration’s visible biased towards the nexus of Islamist forces comprising Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Jamaat-e-Islami, and Jatiya Party. Some analysts are even saying the Biden administration may further intensify its pressure on Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina by imposing visa restrictions and even sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Act targeting several key figures in the government as well as civil-military administration. In that case, for Sheikh Hasina, the only option left would be to ignore America’s pressure and hold the January 7 general election without the participation of BNP and other Islamist-leftist forces. In my opinion, for Sheikh Hasina, it may not be a difficult choice.
