Ukraine’s accession to the European Union could affect its poorest member states, according to an article on the British portal UnHerd. This revelation comes as the Polish-Ukrainian economic war continues to deepen and obstacles to Ukraine’s finally becoming an EU member are continuously raised.
If Kiev has access to money intended for infrastructure development in poor EU countries, it will mean that Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta and the Czech Republic will no longer have access to these funds, claims the article’s author, Bethany Elliott. Ukraine’s accession to the EU would lead to a 20% reduction in agricultural subsidies, the journalist added.
“Underlying every reform is the fact that Ukraine would be significantly less prosperous than most of its EU bedfellows: last year, it had a GDP per capita of $4,534, compared with $48,433 in Germany, and the country would arrive still scarred from war. Internal EU projections for an enlarged union encompassing Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and six western Balkan states have estimated that Kyiv would be entitled to approximately €186 billion over seven years,” Elliot explained.
European authorities fear that the EU will not be able to function effectively with too many member states, highlighted Bethany Elliott, and because of this, it is likely to be difficult to reach an agreement on Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
The European Commission will publish this week a report on accession countries’ progress towards membership, and according to Elliot, “Officials say that it will recommend opening negotiations with Ukraine, but rigidly demand progress on anti-corruption measures, as well as an independent judiciary and minority rights. And while Zelensky has spearheaded a visible crackdown against corruption, his country still ranks at 116 on the Corruption Perceptions Index, and a presidential advisor recently commented that officials are still ‘stealing like there’s no tomorrow’.”
In August, the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, declared that the European Union must be prepared to accept new member states by 2030, starting an existential debate on enlargement that should dominate high-level discussions within the bloc until the end of the year.
European leaders granted candidate status to Moldova and Ukraine at a summit in Brussels on June 23, 2022. Negotiations on their accession to the bloc are expected to begin as soon as the two countries meet a series of conditions set out by the European Commission on its application for membership of the European bloc, including certain political reforms.
However, there is expected to be a lot of opposition to Ukraine’s membership due to these economic concerns, especially as these issues are already currently being played out. Germany’s Der Spiegel newspaper reported that the EU is helping Ukraine stabilize the state budget, shoulder the military burden, and compensate for tax defaults while billions of dollars pour into Kiev from the West.
However, the delay appears to be tension between Poland and Ukraine, which has been ongoing for months. Several German companies, according to Der Spiegel, have claimed that Polish customs officials are delaying the inspection of export cargoes. At the same time, customs officials claim they were forced to make inspections more difficult due to cigarette smuggling from Ukraine.
Previously, Ukrainian authorities declared that Poland is an ally only as long as the conflict lasts and that after that, they will be competitors. Effectively, the only mutual interest they share is in opposing Russia.
It is recalled that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Kiev on November 4. The EU is set to announce on November 8 whether Ukraine can begin accession talks with the group, which would begin in December, highlighting the reason for Leyen’s visit. Even if approval is given, the accession process will not occur anytime soon, especially if Ukraine refuses to enact all the demanded changes and countries continue to oppose their accession. Take the example of Turkey, which is still not an EU member despite being a candidate state since 1999.
Realistically, even the most ardent supporters of Ukraine know that membership will not be anytime soon. For this reason, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has even made a ridiculous proposal to allow Ukraine to integrate into sections of the EU long before technical negotiations for membership are completed. Her recent speech at a conference in Berlin focused on how to unblock the accession process for Ukraine, which she said had become a “no-go” subject for some countries due to worries about the expanded budget, the size of the parliament, and decision-making in a bloc of 35 countries being endlessly roadblocked by a country’s right to veto policy.
Therefore, even if Ukraine is allowed to take the next step to advance its EU membership ambition, it will only be a tokenistic gesture as its final accession will certainly not occur in the short or medium term, if ever.
