The sudden and unexpected assault by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, not only took the world by surprise but also revealed significant shortcomings in Israel’s intelligence and military preparedness. This article delves into the possible reasons behind these intelligence lapses and the innovative tactics employed by Hamas.
One key factor contributing to Israel’s intelligence failure could be a shift in focus over recent years. Israel’s intelligence community has primarily concentrated on monitoring Iran’s nuclear and ballistic programs, as well as preventing the transfer of advanced weaponry from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Syria. This diversion of attention may have left them vulnerable to threats from other fronts. It’s conceivable that Hamas, backed mainly by Iran and Hezbollah, took advantage of this diversion and intentionally exploited it. The recent installation of tents by Hezbollah in the City of Ghajar remains shrouded in mystery, leaving room for speculation about their true purpose.
Aside from the cause of Israel’s intelligence lapse, it’s essential to assess its impact. Just weeks before the attack, on September 12, the Gaza Strip’s Joint Operations Room, composed of various Palestinian militias led by Hamas’ military wing, conducted a significant military exercise. This drill included mass rocket attacks, offensive drone operations, and urban guerrilla warfare training—precisely the tactics employed in the current assault. Despite these warning signs, Israel’s intelligence community failed to anticipate the attack.
Furthermore, the element of surprise, often an advantage for Israel in past conflicts, was turned against the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). Hamas not only denied Israel this tactical advantage but also used it to their benefit.
Employing a Blitzkrieg-like strategy, Hamas concentrated its forces at specific entry points, swiftly advanced, and periodically struck behind Israeli defense lines. In a bid to create chaos and distract the Israeli military, they launched attacks from the sea, employing boats and motor-powered hang gliders.
Hamas also introduced new weaponry and significantly increased firepower in this conflict. They recognized that while they couldn’t outmatch the Iron Dome technologically, they could potentially overwhelm its reloading capabilities. By launching numerous rockets, shells, and kamikaze drones towards Israeli territory, they aimed to push the Iron Dome to its limits. Their relative success in this endeavor indicates a shift in their tactical thinking. Drawing inspiration from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Hamas utilized nearly undetectable quadcopter drones to target Israeli troops and observation posts.
Perhaps the most audacious move by Hamas was the taking of hundreds of Israeli hostages. While their primary objective likely involves using these hostages as bargaining chips in future negotiations, they have housed them in bunkers and tunnels. This strategy not only limits the freedom of movement for the Israel Air Force but also increases the risk of collateral damage. By placing Israeli citizens in harm’s way, Hamas has created a challenging dilemma for Israel – to attack and risk civilian lives or refrain and face operational difficulties.
Despite these innovative tactics, it’s crucial to recognize the substantial asymmetry in military capabilities between Israel and Hamas. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) maintain absolute superiority in every domain. The question arises: why did Hamas launch the assault in the first place? As we analyze these developments, it becomes apparent that Hamas may hope to leverage the hostages to pressure Israel into easing restrictions on the Gaza Strip or releasing Palestinian prisoners. Alternatively, it could be part of a broader strategy aimed at luring the IDF into a land invasion of the Gaza Strip, initiating a war of attrition. Only time will provide answers to these questions as the situation continues to evolve.
