A humanitarian crisis in the long-disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh is shedding light on Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan’s vulnerability, and the Biden administration’s failure to fulfill its promises of protecting Armenians from potential genocide. Nagorno-Karabakh, a small piece of land nestled in the Caucasus Mountains between the Black and Caspian Seas, has been embroiled in sporadic conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan for 35 years.
Armenia and Azerbaijan both claimed sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh until Pashinyan unilaterally relinquished Armenia’s claim, a move considered treasonous by many Armenians. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev gained the upper hand by imposing a blockade on the Lachin corridor, the sole road connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, cutting off vital supplies to the region’s Armenians.
Russia, ostensibly Armenia’s ally and responsible for peacekeeping in Nagorno-Karabakh, has allowed Azerbaijan to carry out this aggression, while the Biden administration has taken no action to aid the besieged Armenians.
The history of Nagorno-Karabakh is complex, with its people having lived there for millennia. The League of Nations recognized it as part of Armenia in 1920, only for Joseph Stalin to transfer it to Azerbaijan in 1921.
The latest war ended in Armenia’s defeat in November 2020, with Azerbaijan employing Turkish special forces and Syrian jihadists. Pashinyan, who came to power in 2018, promised to combat corruption and strengthen ties with the West but has allowed corruption to persist and aligned more closely with Russia, leaving Armenia’s military underfunded and ill-equipped.
The US, France, and Russia were co-chairs of the Minsk Group, tasked with finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict. When Azerbaijan thwarted this process by attacking Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia sent troops under the pretext of peacekeeping. Pashinyan handed control of the Lachin corridor to Russia in 2022, followed by renouncing sovereignty in the territory, effectively allowing Aliyev to blockade it.
Now, Pashinyan’s government is blaming the West for not doing enough to save Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, making it a public relations challenge for the Biden administration. Biden had promised to prevent a second Armenian genocide but now faces scrutiny.
Pashinyan’s reluctance to protect Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh isn’t surprising. Washington received indications from the US embassy in Armenia in 2019 that he lacked interest in serious reform and Western alignment.
The State Department’s 2022 Armenia Country Report found no convictions in corruption cases involving high-ranking officials, and Pashinyan’s popularity at home has plummeted.
Armenia’s cozy relationship with Russia, as seen in its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization and facilitation of goods bypassing Russian sanctions, has irked France. President Macron pledged to take a tougher stance in defending Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, criticizing Pashinyan’s defeatist approach.
The only hope for Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh is that Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev may be running out of time. With reduced support from Russia if Putin falls due to the Ukraine crisis, Aliyev has resorted to a blockade strategy against Armenians.
The international community, including a UN panel of experts and a former International Criminal Court prosecutor, has called for lifting the Lachin corridor blockade, with some describing it as genocide. The US should collaborate with France in the UN Security Council (UNSC) to demand UN-mandated peacekeepers for Nagorno-Karabakh. If Russia blocks this resolution, the US, along with France and Greece, should consider bilateral action. Washington can also strengthen ties with pro-Western political parties in Armenia and signal its intolerance for police brutality against party members.
To pivot towards the West effectively, Armenia requires genuine pro-Western leadership, something Pashinyan lacks. Meaningful reforms, including in national security and defense, are needed, and Pashinyan has alienated nearly everyone. It’s time for a change in leadership.
