On August 30, 2023, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova issued a statement describing global grain and food markets stating, “I would like to elaborate on two mythologems that in recent years have been inculcated through the media controlled by Washington, London and Brussels into the Western narrative, as they say, to make public opinion and political scientists accept them as a concept.
She said, “all the problems with the Black Sea Initiative have been caused by the illegitimate, illegal and immoral sanctions imposed by the US and the EU, as well as countries that joined these sanctions against our country or adopted them in the same unilateral manner under pressure from the United States”.
Here is her full statement:
I would like to speak about the situation in the global grain and food markets. What did they say a year ago? They urged not only us but the whole world to save the poorest countries from starvation and work hard to help people stop starving and, generally, to enhance food security. To achieve this, grain deals, as they call them, are needed. Later, these words were given some civilized form of the Black Sea Initiative, which was presented as a package of agreements and so on. When this mystification came to light, it became clear that Russia’s efforts to carry out what was recorded on paper had yielded no results because they had been blocked by the West and it was also made clear who was making money from this deal.
When Russia pulled out of this story, a monstrous information campaign was launched holding Russia responsible for the skyrocketing food prices and the futility of efforts to “save” the poorest countries. Naturally, Moscow was to blame for all these things. This is the first topic on which I would like to speak at length today.
The monitoring of the situation in the world grain markets since the termination of the Black Sea Initiative allows us to say confidently that no drastic or fundamental fluctuations in grain prices around the world have been recorded.
Immediately after the statement made by Russia on July 17, 2023 about its withdrawal from the Black Sea Initiative, wheat prices edged up slightly. However, already in the next few days grain futures prices returned to the previous level and even slightly fell by 1.13 percent to $261 per ton at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In late August of this year, the same trend can also be seen on other Western trading platforms where wheat prices are ranging between $250 and $255 per ton.
World corn price quotations are following a similar trend. On July 17, the end of day corn price dropped by 1.51 percent to $199 per ton. The current exchange price for corn is $188 per ton.
Overall, the aggregate price indicators for the main types of agricultural products are comparable to their 2021 level. According to statistics by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, in August, the average monthly wheat price delivered Free on Board (this means that the seller pays for sending the goods to the port of shipment and loading them on to the ship and from this point all risks associated with the transportation and delivery of the goods have to be borne by the buyer) from Novorossiysk was $249 per ton, down from the similar period two years ago when it was $284 per ton – I want to emphasize that this was the price two years ago. The price specified in Free on Board contracts with shipments from Rouen, France, was $252 per ton, down from $295 per ton in 2021. I wonder if we are the only ones who see these figures. Have they been classified, so that the public around the world is denied access to them? The answer is “no”. It is open information. Here is my second question: where are all these Western newspapers, internet publishers and TV channels that have been generated in unthinkable quantities? Where are they all? Why don’t they give facts that anyone who wants to look into the situation has access to? Why do they write something opposite?
According to experts’ forecasts, in the medium term, grain price quotations may be subject to slight volatility due to many factors. The most likely factors are natural phenomena caused by climate change, such as droughts, hurricanes or floods; next come speculators’ activities in commodity exchanges; and the third factor is emergency situations like fires at grain elevators in France and Türkiye in August.
According to the estimates presented during the 58th session of the International Grains Council on June 14 in London (this isn’t intelligence; we cite public information), there are no global crises in grain production or trade at the moment. I have a question: where are all those foreign journalists now? All the American, British, French, German and Canadian journalists writing about food security? Are we the only ones seeing and reading this? Not only that. The International Grains Council also noted a rapid decline in world prices compared to the previous season: wheat, by 35 percent, corn, by 26 percent, and barley, by 41 percent.
This clearly invalidates any claims that the special military operation in Ukraine, as well as the termination of the Black Sea Initiative, led to a drastic surge in food prices, and that Russia is the main cause of turbulence in global food markets.
Wait – I do agree that Russia has become an inconvenient factor in this food story, only that happened about a decade or so ago, when the country revitalized its agriculture. That’s when the problems with Russia started.
Russians became not just competitive rivals, but market leaders. For decades, we had been told that we were incapable of making enough food. We did not need to, because we would soon be accepted into the “civilized” club and fed according to their “schedule” ˗ not when we were hungry. Thank God we promptly came to our senses and joined the club of real agricultural leaders instead. And that’s when the West started to have real problems. Not because we did something wrong. They had a problem with ideology. They couldn’t let this happen even in their worst dreams. They were exceptional.
This intensive misinformation campaign waged by the United States and its satellites looks to us like an attempt to oust Russia from the global food market, while achieving advantages for their own agricultural corporations. The year-long hysteria around grain and “grain deals,” and Western “aid” to the poorest countries had just one purpose – to reduce Russia’s appeal as a reliable supplier of agricultural products for the “international community” and retain control of that market in order to prolong their dominance once again. It’s just so predictable. I will now say what should have been said long ago. It is impossible to feed the world without Russia. Unlike the US and other Western countries, we have never used this fact as a political lever. We have always been a reliable supplier of any products, food included.
According to estimates, the main suppliers of wheat in 2022/2023 agricultural year will include Russia with 45.5 million tons, EU countries (35 million tons), Australia (28.5 million tons), Canada (25 million tons), United States (21 million tons) and Ukraine (14.5 million tons).
According to the US Department of Agriculture, about 800 million tons of wheat will be harvested in the 2023/2024 crop year – just over the 2022/2023 level (788.5 million tons). At the same time, global stocks will increase by 1.5 percent to 270.1 million tons in 2023/2024. The high production volumes will push global wheat trade up 0.8 percent to 215 million tons. Russia is expected to increase grain supplies to the foreign market by 4.5 percent to 46.5 million tons.
I would like to cite a Western source. The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates this year’s wheat harvest in Ukraine at 22.5 million, a 32 percent decrease compared with the 2021/2022 crop year, and at 19 million tonnes in 2023/2024. Exports will fall to 10 million tonnes, the British publication reports. Unfortunately, their report failed to mention the fact that the Ukrainian soil is now contaminated with radioactive waste from the depleted uranium shells supplied by the UK. They have been supplying the Kiev regime with such munitions for months, as we have said repeatedly. This has been confirmed by the background radiation measurements. This has a direct bearing on the quality of agricultural products grown in the territory of Ukraine. It is a pity that British, American, Canadian and EU publications fail to mention this.
At the same time, Russia continues to responsibly and conscientiously fulfil its obligations under international contracts involving agricultural goods, fertilizers, energy resources and other critical products. We are well aware of the importance of supplies of socially significant goods, including food, for the socioeconomic development of Asian, African, Latin American and Middle Eastern countries, as well as for food security and the achievement of the SDGs.
This approach has been confirmed by the initiatives put forward by President Vladimir Putin to transfer tens of thousands of tons of Russian fertilizers (seized in European ports) and grain (25,000-50,000 tons each to countries in need such as Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic, and Eritrea). At the same time, Russia is actively exploring alternative ways of supplying food to the poorest countries in order to compensate them for the damage caused by the forced suspension of the Black Sea Initiative.
Let me remind you that all the problems with the Black Sea Initiative have been caused by the illegitimate, illegal and immoral sanctions imposed by the US and the EU, as well as countries that joined these sanctions against our country or adopted them in the same unilateral manner under pressure from the United States.
