For nearly a year, law enforcement agencies and intelligence services from multiple countries have been meticulously working to uncover the perpetrators behind the explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines, which supplied Europe with Russian natural gas in September of last year. The findings of this investigation could present a significant political challenge for both Berlin and the wider European region, given the sensitive nature of the case. Politicians are already grappling with the potential implications of this high-stakes inquiry.
A comprehensive six-month investigation carried out by Der Spiegel and ZDF TV seems to corroborate initial claims by US intelligence: a group of Ukrainian specialists commandeered a sailboat to plant explosives that ultimately ruptured three out of the four pipes constituting the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines.
Substantial traces of octogen, an underwater explosive, were discovered aboard the sailboat “Andromeda”, which the suspects had chartered from the port town of Warnemünde in Germany on the Baltic Sea. Reporters went as far as chartering the same vessel to retrace the suspects’ route and attempt to locate some of the crew members responsible for the pipeline attack.
The sailboat was chartered through an enigmatic Warsaw travel agency, lacking a website, phone number, physical offices, or staff. The agency’s manager, Nataliia A., 54, resides in Kyiv, Ukraine, with seemingly no prior experience in the tourism industry. When contacted by journalists, she abruptly ended the call upon learning their identity. A few days later, an individual claiming to be a police officer contacted the reporters and threatened legal action for alleged stalking.
Upon attempting to board the yacht in Warnemünde, the suspects presented a Romanian passport under the name Ștefan Marcu. Collaborating with investigative networks Rise Moldova and OCCRP, the reporters tracked down the 60-year-old passport holder and ascertained his non-involvement in the attack. Intriguingly, his passport had expired a month after the incident, yet his information had been used to create a new passport, albeit with a 20-year-old individual’s photo.
Reporters speculate that the person depicted in the photo is actually a man known as Valeri K. from Dnipro, Ukraine, who is currently serving in the Ukrainian Army’s 93rd Brigade. However, DNA samples from traces found on Andromeda and those taken from Valeri’s son have failed to match. The identity of these six individuals, whoever they may be, suggests that the attack was executed without the knowledge of the Ukrainian leadership. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky maintained that he would not have sanctioned such an operation.
The pipeline sabotage is deemed a severe breach of German national security, marking one of the most significant investigations since World War II – laden with potential political repercussions.
While some speculate about Russian involvement, planting misleading evidence to implicate Ukraine and turn global sentiment against the country, it’s more likely that the attack’s orchestrators were not Russian. The pipelines are a crucial revenue stream for Moscow, making it an improbable motive.
From the outset, the Nord Stream 2 project was criticized by Germany’s allies for increasing the nation’s reliance on Russian gas and granting Moscow leverage over Berlin.
On the other hand, if Ukraine was responsible for the explosion, aiming to hinder Moscow’s revenue and aggression, how would Germany respond? Would Berlin continue providing military support to Kyiv?
And if there were indications of US or UK involvement, could it strain an eight-decade-long partnership?
One thing is clear: the sabotage underscores the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, which could be exploited by any state. Nations like North Korea and Iran are closely monitoring the aftermath, awaiting potential responses.
If the culprits manage to evade justice, it might embolden future attacks against critical targets, such as internet nodes, oil pipelines, or nuclear facilities.
In any scenario, the investigation has placed politicians in a challenging dilemma, as Der Spiegel contends.
