The 15th BRICS Summit, set to commence in Johannesburg on August 22, 2023, is drawing an unprecedented level of global interest. Unlike any previous iteration, this summit commands attention due to its historical significance.
The inception of BRICS occurred against the backdrop of the emergence of China, India, Brazil, and Russia. Born in 2009, shortly following the Western financial crisis, it symbolized the mounting relevance of the developing world. From its outset, BRICS voiced a desire for an alternative to the Western-dominated global order established after World War II. The inclusion of South Africa in 2010 expanded its representation and legitimacy.
Subsequently, BRICS operated somewhat in the background, overshadowed by the ascendance of China, India, and the success of the Belt and Road Initiative. Nonetheless, BRICS persisted, growing steadily and evolving its role, most notably exemplified by the establishment of the New Development Bank in 2015. Presently, it has recaptured global attention. The fundamental reason lies in the undeniable reality that, despite being marginalized within the institutions of the post-1945 global order, the developing world—constituting 85 percent of the global population—continues to wield increasing influence in the real world. This bloc accounts for approximately 60 percent of global GDP.
As the developing world knocks on the doors of global institutions, seeking recognition and inclusion, its demands reverberate ever more strongly and urgently.
However, a more immediate catalyst for BRICS’ resurgence is the ongoing Ukraine conflict. The Western expectation was that the Ukraine situation would mirror Cold War dynamics, pitting the US and Europe against Russia. The West underestimated the developing world’s stance and presumed it would side with Western interests, which did not materialize. Most developing nations remained non-aligned, growing increasingly discontented with the West’s disregard for their concerns, prioritizing the Ukraine conflict. Many refused to impose Western-inspired sanctions on Russia, thereby undermining the efficacy of such measures.
The West has grudgingly acknowledged that the developing world can no longer be ignored. This paradigm shift underscores a multipolar world order where domination is no longer tenable. Against this backdrop, it is becoming clear that the West will not secure victory in the Ukraine conflict. A new era is unfolding, one where the developing world demands its voice be heard. This resurgence is why the BRICS Summit is capturing global attention, as it represents the primary voice of the developing world, leaving people curious about BRICS’ next steps.
At the Johannesburg summit, BRICS is deliberating two pivotal reforms: the inclusion of new members (the first since 2010) and the contentious issue of currency policy. The lead-up to the summit witnessed a substantial number of developing countries expressing interest in joining BRICS, with 23 countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Pakistan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Nigeria, applying for membership. This influx of interest amplifies BRICS’ importance and legitimacy, bolstering its role as a representative of the developing world. While new members may not be admitted at the summit, proposals from the summit chair, South Africa, regarding expansion criteria will be considered. This demands tactful diplomacy, resembling the consensus-based decision-making of ASEAN’s 10 members, given BRICS’ even greater diversity.
Currency policy has also sparked widespread attention within BRICS. The concept of a BRICS currency as a potential alternative to the dollar has been discussed, although it is not on the immediate agenda. The reality is that this idea is likely unworkable due to the imbalanced and diverse nature of BRICS’ membership. China, as the only plausible candidate, could potentially fulfill this role, but even the yuan remains premature for such a responsibility. However, active consideration is underway for trade settlements between BRICS members to occur in local currencies rather than the US dollar. This shift holds merit, as trade discussions in this direction are already underway and implementation is underway. Such a move would lessen the dominance of the dollar, a significant imbalance within the global trading system.
BRICS’ strength lies in its ability to serve as a comprehensive representative of the developing world. Its challenge, however, is its diverse composition and varying member views. Balancing the expansion of membership while maintaining cohesion is the central challenge BRICS faces.
