The challenges faced by democracy in Latin America are not a new phenomenon. The region has seen the rise of authoritarian populism, which has eroded democratic institutions and norms, contributing to the decline of democratic governance. However, an even more concerning trend is the spread of such behaviors to democracies that are already vulnerable.
In nations with robust institutions, recently elected left-of-center governments have encountered difficulties in implementing their agendas.
All indications suggest a worrying increase in anti-democratic sentiments, and a review of recent political developments, excluding the complex situation of Mexico, points toward a potential intensification of challenges to democratic governance.
Predictably, Latin American dictators have increasingly employed repressive tactics. In preparation for next year’s elections, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has undertaken significant changes in the country’s electoral council.
Following the mass resignation of officials linked to the ruling party, a committee led by Maduro’s wife, Cilia Flores, will now be responsible for selecting new council members. Maduro’s administration has also disqualified opposition leader María Corina Machado from participating in the presidential race.
In Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega has chosen to disregard a resolution from the Organization of American States that called for an end to human rights violations, the release of political prisoners, and respect for religious freedoms. Ortega’s regime has been involved in a prolonged crackdown on the Catholic Church, and the nation even engaged in talks with Iran to strengthen military cooperation. This ongoing slide into autocracy, while not unprecedented, has contributed to the weakening of democracy throughout the region.
In “flawed” democratic regimes such as Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, the situation has taken a negative turn. Guatemala’s presidential election in June saw the banning of several opposition candidates, and the first-round results were later postponed by a court.
Honduran President Xiomara Castro has adopted hardline anti-gang tactics similar to those in neighboring El Salvador, including the mass detention of alleged gang members and the suspension of certain constitutional rights. Of particular concern is El Salvador President Nayib Bukele’s decision to seek re-election, a clear violation of the country’s constitution.
Likewise, the political turmoil in Peru continues, highlighting the government’s dysfunction.
After a failed coup attempt last year, former President Pedro Castillo, along with other former Peruvian presidents, was arrested and is awaiting trial. Dina Boluarte, Castillo’s vice president, assumed office and initially called for early elections, but later announced her intention to remain in power until 2026.
Drawing from recent history, Boluarte’s path could potentially lead to further authoritarian rule, especially given the United Nations’ condemnation of her government’s violent suppression of demonstrators in early 2023.
Perhaps most disconcerting are the challenges faced by relatively new governments in Brazil, Chile, and Colombia, which came to power with aspirations of implementing significant social reforms while upholding democratic principles and fiscal responsibility.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has encountered difficulties in advancing his economic and social agenda through a divided and hostile Congress. This challenge was exacerbated by the events of January, when former President Jair Bolsonaro’s far-right administration concluded with his supporters storming government buildings in Brasília.
Revelations of military involvement in the insurrection have emerged, and Brazil’s electoral court has banned Bolsonaro from seeking office until 2030 due to false claims about the voting system prior to the election.
Paradoxically, the longer the government remains deadlocked, the higher the likelihood that extremist forces will coalesce behind another anti-democratic candidate.
In Chile, where the president’s term is limited to a single four-year period, Gabriel Boric is finding himself increasingly constrained by this restriction.
Despite the likelihood of a new constitution being approved through a referendum by year-end, Boric’s administration has been marked by electoral setbacks, Congress rejecting his tax reform, a corruption scandal in the housing ministry, and a nuanced but principled approach to foreign affairs. This creates an opportunity for another far-right populist, José Antonio Kast, who lost to Boric in 2021 but is now leading in polls, partly due to a law-and-order fervor gripping one of the safest countries in Latin America. As the 50th anniversary of the coup that toppled President Salvador Allende approaches, the outlook for Chilean democracy appears uncertain.
The situation in Colombia mirrors this pattern: a promising left-leaning president with a purported majority in Congress and plans for comprehensive tax, healthcare, pension, and labor reforms suddenly finds himself immobilized, besieged from all angles, and with minimal support in Congress. While no overt anti-democratic drift is evident in Colombia, President Gustavo Petro’s insistence on taking his agenda to the streets might provoke an authoritarian response from the conservative factions in the traditionally conservative society, possibly swaying the majority.
Argentina, like Colombia, is experiencing slightly better conditions – but only marginally. Presidential elections are scheduled for October, with mandatory primaries in August. Several notable candidates raise concerns.
Libertarian Javier Milei, an unconventional and radical economist advocating for the abolition of the central bank and economic dollarization, is attempting to break the Peronist stronghold on the presidency and could make it to a run-off. Authoritarian tendencies are also potentially present in former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich, a hardliner known for her tough-on-crime stance.
Sergio Massa, the Peronist candidate and current economy minister, has presided over nearly a year-long economic decline and is unlikely to pose a significant challenge to his rivals.
Over recent years, surveys have consistently demonstrated diminishing support for democratic governance in Latin America. Fragile economic circumstances, emerging post-pandemic societal demands, and polarized, distrustful electorates are contributing to a reactionary political climate that may heighten threats to democracy in the region in the years to come.
