As the scheduled January 2024 parliamentary election in Bangladesh approaches, there is increasing concern over the potential for prolonged political and economic instability if Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina faces defeat. The United States’ intervention in addressing democratic issues and ensuring free and fair elections has complicated the situation, leading to a heightened political climate and emboldening opposition forces, notably Islamist fundamentalist groups. Bangladesh’s stability is further complicated by its strategic significance in a region marked by shifting allegiances and great power rivalries.
Sheikh Hasina’s government has traditionally been India’s closest and most reliable partner within a region characterized by anti-Indian sentiments and geopolitical complexities. However, China’s rising influence challenges India’s position in the region. While the US had previously placed Bangladesh within its sphere of democracy promotion, the Joe Biden administration’s recent measures are aimed at addressing alleged democratic backsliding and electoral manipulation.
Recent US actions include the threat of visa sanctions against those engaging in election rigging and sanctions against officials linked to the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), a paramilitary force accused of aiding ruling Awami League, in past elections. Hasina, who has been in power since 2009, faces accusations of manipulating elections and stifling political opposition to maintain her authority.
Meanwhile, there is strong speculations of fresher sanctions targeting several Bangladeshi nationals who have laundered millions of dollars and invested in real estate and other business ventures. Few more western nations may also follow the same path.
The US and European nations have pressed Sheikh Hasina to create a level playing field for all political parties, evident in their response to an attack on an opposition candidate during a recent byelection in Dhaka. The European Union issued a strong condemnation of the incident. However, Biden’s exclusion of Bangladesh from his democratic summit and his administration’s lack of engagement during Hasina’s visit to Washington underscore the challenges in their relationship.
The heightened US scrutiny has revitalized opposition groups like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamist organization with historical ties to Pakistan. The BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami, encouraged by the US stance, are more assertively opposing the government, potentially leading to a shift in power dynamics if elections are genuinely free and fair.
Bangladesh’s economic transformation under Hasina has been notable, with an annual growth rate of 7 percent over the past decade and significant social progress. However, the emerging geopolitical struggle between the US and China has amplified the challenges Bangladesh faces. China’s growing economic and defense ties with Bangladesh, including its involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), have prompted concerns from India and the US. As China’s presence expands, the potential for Bangladesh to become a battleground for their regional influence grows.
The situation has presented India with a complex set of considerations. The close relationship between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sheikh Hasina has bolstered cooperation between their countries. India fears that a new regime in Bangladesh, especially one supported by the BNP and potentially aligned with China, could disrupt the current favorable dynamics.
The upcoming January election in Bangladesh has drawn attention to the potential for political and economic instability, both nationally and regionally. The US-imposed measures to ensure fair elections, coupled with China’s growing influence, have added complexity to the situation. The outcomes of the election could significantly impact the country’s trajectory and regional dynamics, with India, China, and the US all vying for influence and stability in the region.
