The foremost worry for Democrats centers around the potential reemergence of Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. During a recent US-Nordic leaders’ summit in Helsinki, a Finnish journalist posed a direct question to President Biden regarding the United States’ commitment to NATO. Biden responded with a firm assurance that the US would remain a reliable NATO partner, backed by significant support from the American people. However, he acknowledged that no one can guarantee the future with absolute certainty.
In a preceding interview, Richard Haass, the former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, voiced concerns that the United States itself is currently the most significant threat to global security. Haass highlighted the confusion among international leaders about whether the Biden administration signifies a return to traditional American values or if Trumpism has become the new norm.
These concerns are resonating with US allies, including Australia, where anticipation of the 2024 presidential election is reminiscent of the upheavals experienced in 2016, starting with the Brexit vote and culminating in Trump’s election. Trump’s potential return to power prompts questions about the implications for global stability and alliances.
Australia’s long-standing alliance with the US, established during World War I, has remained strong. Despite some challenges, such as those faced by other US allies like Israel, Canada, and the UK, Australia’s relationship with the US has largely been stable. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad) and the AUKUS agreement further demonstrate Australia’s integral role in promoting stability in the Asia Pacific region.
However, the prospect of Trump’s return to the presidency raises concerns about the pillars of Trumpism: “America first”, isolationism, protectionism, and nativism. A potential second term could see Trump intensify these policies, causing leaders to grapple with how to navigate his unpredictable and aggressive approach. The hypothetical scenario of Trump dismantling NATO, initiating trade wars, accommodating Russia, and withdrawing from Asia Pacific security commitments raises critical questions for US allies.
On a broader level, the existential issue emerges: should countries like Australia maintain their alliances with a US that might abandon its democratic values? If Trump undermines democracy, it could lead to a divided and unrest-ridden United States, raising questions about the nature of the alliance. Allies need to contemplate the repercussions of a Trump presidency and be proactive in strategizing for potential upheavals in global politics.
As the possibility of Trump’s return looms, the question becomes a pressing concern for all democratic nations aligned with the US. It is imperative for these allies to prepare for the potential consequences rather than reacting after the fact. The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s candidacy necessitates a strategic assessment of the future of democratic alliances and their alignment with a potentially changed United States.
