Could Sir Keir Starmer be poised to become the next Prime Minister of Britain? Recent events have thrust the Labour Party into the spotlight, with the return of Sir Tony Blair as an informal chief adviser to Sir Keir Starmer taking center stage. Utilizing his Global Institute, the former Prime Minister is working on new policies to address the gaps in Labour’s current offerings.
The narrative surrounding this development began over a month ago, sparked by a prominent Politico feature titled “Tony Blair’s Labour rehabilitation continues as he shares stage with Keir Starmer”. This story has been consistently covered by various political journalists, featured in outlets such as the Daily Mail, The Guardian, The Times, and Unherd.
However, the Sunday Times took a different stance by raising concerns about the Blair Global Institute’s financial ties to Saudi Arabia. These financial dealings date back to 2018 and have persisted despite the controversy surrounding Saudi agents’ involvement in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. While these concerns were raised, Saudi Arabia’s evolving political position and its recent establishment of a football league have somewhat diverted attention from the past incident.
Yet, it remains a subject of debate whether Sir Tony Blair can fully rehabilitate his image within Labour and the broader UK political landscape. Some speculate that he could potentially play a role similar to that of Cardinal Mazarin, advising from the shadows should Sir Keir Starmer ascend to the role of Prime Minister. However, this notion should be approached with caution.
Tony Blair’s legacy within the Labour Party is indeed remarkable. He secured victory in three elections and led Labour to its lengthiest period in government. When he assumed office, the UK faced deep-seated issues, with regions like South Yorkshire, Wales, and the North-East relying on substantial EU aid. Recent reports highlight that if the UK were a US state, it would rank as the second poorest, following Mississippi. The economic resurgence of London in the 1980s and necessary labor reforms following public sector strikes in the 1970s have masked the enduring vulnerabilities left by the Thatcher era.
Blair’s entrance in 1997 was marked by a reformist zeal reminiscent of the significant reforms under the Asquith-Lloyd George administration of 1906. His government dismantled anti-gay laws and hereditary peers in the House of Lords. Additionally, the Bank of England gained independence, and the Department of International Development was established to address global poverty driving illegal migration to Europe and the UK.
Addressing rising crime, New Labour bolstered the police force by hiring an additional 20,000 officers. Blair also introduced Anti-Social Behavior Orders, a precursor to today’s discussions on “wokeism.” He proposed ID cards, a measure that encountered resistance but found support in Red Wall constituencies. Concerns arose over immigration from Eastern Europe, highlighting gaps in planning. Investment in the National Health Service (NHS) was prioritized, and tuition fees were introduced for university education.
However, Blair’s positive accomplishments were overshadowed by the Iraq War. Despite significant parliamentary support for the war, the aftermath resulted in widespread criticism, particularly from the Labour Party. The intervention led to regime changes and failed states, fueling the influx of asylum seekers and migrants to Europe.
Blair’s association with the Iraq War has been a point of contention. While many have since acknowledged the mistake, Blair has yet to issue a formal mea culpa. He has invested his post-political earnings from speaking engagements into his Global Institute, which produces reports and conferences comparable to established international think tanks.
The legacy of Blair’s reforms was eclipsed by Iraq, an outcome exacerbated by Ed Miliband’s rejection of Blair’s achievements during his leadership from 2010 to 2015. With time, a new generation of Labour MPs might reevaluate Blair’s contributions, a possibility highlighted by Sir Keir Starmer’s alignment with Blair.
However, the Global Institute operates within a context of deracinated politics reminiscent of the Davos culture. Its solutions often stray from the practical considerations faced by leaders in their daily tasks.
Running a nation entails addressing numerous challenges, making decisions, and handling media interactions. Blair understands this reality well. It is unrealistic to expect him to readily step into Downing Street and advise a potential Prime Minister Starmer. The notion of a collaborative leadership between Sir Tony and Sir Keir is equally implausible.
While Blair’s guidance could be sought occasionally, the ultimate responsibility would fall on Prime Minister Starmer. If Starmer emerges as the next Prime Minister based on polling data, he would face unique challenges as a solitary leader.
The possibility of Sir Keir Starmer becoming the UK’s next Prime Minister is generating significant interest. Tony Blair’s reemergence in political circles adds another layer to this narrative. However, while Blair’s contributions and advice may be acknowledged, his role would likely remain limited given the complex realities of leading a nation. The path ahead is marked by challenges that will require Starmer’s individual leadership.
