As Russia’s actions against Ukraine persist, the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) closely monitors the developments across military, cyber, and information domains. With years of experience tracking Ukraine’s situation and Russia’s use of propaganda and disinformation, the DFRLab’s global team presents the latest report on the Russian War.
Ukrainian Attack Damages Kerch Bridge: On July 17, Russia accused Ukraine of conducting a drone strike on the Kerch Strait Bridge, also known as the Crimean Bridge, connecting the Crimean Peninsula to Russia’s Krasnodar region. The bridge serves as a crucial logistical route for the Russian army and civilian movement. The attack caused damage to a section of the bridge, leading to temporary traffic disruptions. Ukrainian defense intelligence spokesperson Andrii Yusov refrained from commenting on the cause of the explosion, but reports suggest it could create logistical difficulties for Russian forces. The incident occurred amid talks to prolong the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which permits Ukraine to export products and stem global food price surges. The Kremlin suspended its participation in the initiative but denied any connection to the bridge attack.
Wagner Group Relocates to Belarus: The Wagner Group, apparently disbanded in Russia, has relocated its operations to Belarus. Footage and satellite imagery indicate troop movements from Russia to the Tsel military camp near Asipovichy in Belarus. A video showed Wagner soldiers removing the Russian and Wagner flags from their original military base in Molkino, Russia. Prigozhin, associated with Wagner, addressed the fighters, stating they were moving to Belarus and shifting focus to activities in Africa. Recent events suggest Wagner’s attempt to expand its presence in Africa, particularly in West African coastal states threatened by the Sahel’s jihadist insurgency.
Russian Officials and Media Change Narrative on Kerch Bridge Attack: Following the July 17 attack on the Kerch Bridge, Russian officials and state media initially referred to it as an “emergency.” However, after Kremlin agencies termed it a “terror act,” their language shifted to match the official stance. This change highlights the Kremlin’s control over the narrative surrounding significant events.
FSB Colonel Behind Telegram Channel Detained for Extortion: Former FSB Colonel Mikhail Polyakov, allegedly linked to the Telegram channel “Kremlin Laundress,” was detained for suspected extortion. The channel, known for its criticism of the Russian government, reportedly demanded money from IT companies in exchange for not publishing damaging information about them.
Wagner Continues Advertising Services in Africa: A Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel advertised the group’s services to African states, offering to protect sovereignty and combat militants and terrorists. Wagner’s presence in Africa remains a concern, particularly as its activities coincide with critical events in countries like Central African Republic (CAR), where a constitutional referendum is scheduled.
Lavrov to Replace Putin at BRICS Summit: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will replace President Vladimir Putin at the upcoming BRICS Summit, hosted by South Africa. This development comes amid the International Criminal Court’s warrant for Putin’s arrest for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. South Africa, a signatory to the ICC’s Rome Statute, faced pressure to arrest Putin had he attended the summit, with Russia denying any threats to South African authorities.
The situation in Ukraine and Russia’s actions continue to shape the geopolitical landscape, while Wagner Group’s presence in Africa raises concerns about its role in the region’s stability and security. As events unfold, the world watches closely to assess the impact of these developments on global affairs.
